Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Rockwell Collins (COL) 2014 Review

Rockwell Collins designs manufacturers and supports aviation electronics and mobile and airborne communication systems, navigation, display and automatic flight control systems to multinational corporations and defense and electronic system products for airborne, ground and shipboard applications for domestic government agencies.  The company has grown earnings and dividends 12-16% annually over the last ten years while earning a 35%+ return on equity.  Despite the sensitivity of the airline and private aircraft industries to the economy, earnings should continue their long term growth rate due to:

(1) it is the largest supplier of communications and avionic equipment to both the commercial and military markets, reducing the volatility of earnings

(2) increasing its international exposure,

(3) new product development,

(4) debt reduction and stock buybacks.

 Negatives:

(1)    a majority of its contracts are fixed price creating a problem if there are cost overruns,

(2)    its exposure to the cyclical aerospace market,

(3)    a large percentage of its sales are overseas so it subject to foreign laws, regulations and policies.

COL is rated A+ by Value Line, has a debt to equity ratio of 26% and its stock yields 1.7%

  Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases   
                Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2004

COL          1.7%            5%             25%             7
Ind Ave     2.5                8*              35               NA 

                Debt/                        EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                Equity         ROE      Since 2004      Margin       Rating

COL          26%           32%            2                13%           A+
Ind Ave      36              8              NA                4              NA


* the majority of companies in COL industry do not pay a dividend

     Chart

            Note: COL stock made good initial progress off its March 2009 low, surpassing the downtrend off its November 2007 high (red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line),  Long term the stock is in an uptrend (straight blue lines).  Intermediate term, it is an uptrend (purple lines).  Short term, it is an uptrend (brown line).  The wiggly blue line is on balance volume.  The Aggressive Growth Portfolio owns a 75% position in COL.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $46; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $87.


   

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