Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

1/6/14

The Market

           

    Technical

      Monday Morning Chartology

            The S&P keeps on truckin’, remaining well within all major uptrends.  The rough first two days of trading isn’t surprising, given the magnitude of how overbought the Market is.  That said, bear in mind that the first five days of trading determines stocks’ January performance 78% of the time; and the January performance determines stocks’ performance for the year 82% of the time.  So the next three days’ pin action is statistically important.

            http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/Santa-Claus-is-Back-in-Town-SPY-DIA-QQQ

Update on sentiment (short):

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/1/2/bullish-sentiment-among-individual-investors-declines.html

                For the bulls (short):

            http://blog.yardeni.com/2014/01/buybacks-great-rotation-and-melt-up.html

            The long Treasury continues to construct a head and shoulders formation.  The lower boundary (lower brown line) of its short term trading range is the neck line.  A break below that level would suggest a test of the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend (purple line).

            GLD’s chart remains pretty ugly.  But it did just make a double bottom.  If it can break some resistance levels on the upside, our Portfolios will likely start to re-establish their positions.

            The VIX continues to meander within a year long trading range, providing little information on future stock price movement.

    Fundamental

  

            The era of central bank driven equity rallies (short):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-01/jpmorgan-presents-era-central-bank-driven-equity-rallies

            Update on valuation (short, must read):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-03/jpmorgan-reveals-stocks-are-more-expensive-now-their-2007-peak

            And (medium):

            http://advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/dshort_010214.php

       News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

            Draghi’s nightmare (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-03/no-waking-draghis-monetary-nightmare-eurozone-credit-creation-tumbles-new-all-time-l

Politics

  Domestic

The redistribution of wealth in the US (medium):

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-02/biggest-redistribution-wealth-middle-class-and-poor-rich-ever-explained

Quote of the day (short):

http://cafehayek.com/2014/01/quotation-of-the-day-862.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CafeHayek+%28Cafe+Hayek%29

  International War Against Radical Islam

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.