Friday, July 26, 2013

The Morning Call--The Averages are still out of sync


The Morning Call

7/26/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 15555, S&P 1690) rebounded yesterday.  The Dow closed back above the upper boundary of its short term trading range (14190-15550).  Under our time and distance discipline, that re-starts the clock on the time element.  If it remains above 15550 through the close Monday, the trading range will be invalidated and the trend re-set to up.  The S&P remained within its short term uptrend (1600-1756) and bounced back above the May 22 high (1687)---which as I noted yesterday should be acting as support.  

            Both of the indices remain within their intermediate term (14438-19438, 1535-2123) and long term uptrends (4918-17000, 715-1800).

            Volume was flat; breadth improved.  The VIX fell, remaining within its short term trading range and intermediate term downtrend.

            GLD rose and is developing a very short term uptrend.  However, it is firmly within its short term and intermediate term downtrends.

            Bottom line: the challenge process of the Averages short term trading ranges continues---yesterday on a more positive note.  The Dow re-started its challenge; and the S&P 1687 seems to have done its job of providing support.  Nevertheless, as long as the indices are out of sync (S&P re-setting to an uptrend, the DJIA not), a change in overall Market trend has not been validated.  At the moment, all we can do in remain patient and let the Market work things out.

            August historically has been one of the worst months stock performance-wise (short):

            Update on NYSE margin debt (short):

            Bullish sentiment ticks lower (short):

    Fundamental
    
      Headlines

            Yesterday’s US economic data was mixed: June durable goods orders surged but ex the very volatile transportation sector, they were below expectations, weekly jobless claims rose but were in line and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index was above estimates.

            Internationally, the dataflow continued to improve: German business confidence improved, Spanish employment and the UK second quarter GDP were stronger than expected.  The bad news was that ECB credit creation fell and private credit creation hit a record low.  I noted in yesterday’s Morning Call that it was something of a surprise to be getting positive numbers out of the EU.  The above stats makes the surprise all the more pleasant.  We still need more than two days of upbeat data before getting jiggy about a potential improvement in Europe.  Nonetheless, we have to appreciate good news when we get it.

            Earnings and interest rates still commanded the bulk of attention yesterday with better bond prices (lower rates) carrying most of the weight.  This was helped along by a new Hilsenrath (aka Bernanke’s bitch) puff piece ‘speculating’ that the Fed will continue QE at its July meeting.  That in turn accounted for the improvement in equity prices. 

This recent behavior (stock prices inversely correlated with interest rates) seems to be suggesting that stock prices are becoming more sensitive to interest rates---irrespective of how one interprets ‘tapering’, Bernanke’s confusing  statements on ‘tapering’, whether or not ‘tapering’ is ‘tightening’, whether or not investors have already discounted ‘tapering’ and whether or not investors’ confidence in the Fed was impacted by the ‘tapering’ confusion.

In other words, we may have a very simple equation before us versus the more complex arguments about the Fed, ‘tapering’ etc that I have been going through: stocks, at the moment, don’t like higher interest rates, period.  If rates go up, no matter what the reason, it appears stocks are going down and visa versa.

Bottom line:  we have seen a lot of cross currents in the news this week: poor economic numbers out of the US, but improving data from Europe; better earnings reports than anticipated but a move up in interest rates.  Overall, I consider them a mild plus for the economy.  However, even if they were so positive to prompt an upgrade to our forecast---and I am by no means suggesting that they are; but if they were---stocks would still be overvalued (as calculated by our Model). 

On the other hand, if interest rates are heading up---and again, I am not suggesting that they are---then if the pin action of late is an indication of overall investor sentiment, the Market may take a dim view.  

            In the end, I am sticking with our discipline, focusing on lightening up on those stocks that hit their Sell Half Range.   



Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at

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