Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) 2013 Review


Teva Pharmaceutical Industries is an Israeli based global pharmaceutical company that develops, manufactures and markets generic and proprietary branded drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients.  The company has grown profits and dividends at a 25%+ rate over the last ten years earning a 14-20% return on equity.  The company was little impacted by the recent recession and should continue to expand as a result of:

(1) plentiful growth opportunities in generic drugs.  The company currently has 83 product applications pending before the FDA,

(2) a significant and growing branded pharmaceutical business,

(3) the company has a very successful at resolving patent challenges which is a key part of generic product selections and development strategy,

(4) it is pursuing strategic relationships,

(5) a major R&D effort in the biopharmaceutical and biogeneric markets.

(6) significant cost reduction program.

 Negatives:

(1) the pharmaceutical industry is very competitive and the generic segment is highly crowded,

(2) gaining approval for drugs is becoming more difficult in an increasingly tough regulatory environment,

(3) weak sales in the EU.

TEVA is rated A by Value Line, has a 36% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 2.9%.

 Statistical Summary

                 Stock        Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                 Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio        Since 2003

TEVA        2.9%          13%               22%              10
Ind Ave      3.8              6*                 46                NA 

                  Debt/                       EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                 Equity         ROE      Since 2003      Margin       Rating

TEVA        36%           17%            0                 22             A
Ind Ave      27              18              NA              15            NA

*many companies in TEVA industry do not pay a dividend
  
     Chart

            Note: TEVA stock has performed poorly since its October 2008 low.  While it has managed to trade above the downtrend off its March 2008 high (red line), it is just barely above it currently.  Similarly, the stock struggled several times with the November 2008 trading high (green line) and today trades below that level.  Long term, the stock is in a trading range (straight blue lines).  Intermediate term, it is a downtrend (purple lines).  The wiggly blue line is on balance volume.  The Aggressive Growth Portfolio owns a 70% position in TEVA.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $36; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $67.     




3/13

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