Friday, March 8, 2013

The Morning Call---Internally conflicted


The Morning Call

3/8/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 14329, S&P 1544) rose again.  For the third day, the Dow closed above the upper boundary of its short term uptrend (13612-14272) and the former all time high (14190).  A finish above those levels today will confirm the break.

            That said, the S&P again failed to surpass its comparables to those aforementioned boundaries: (1) short term uptrend [1482-1553] and (2) its former all time high [1576].  Clearly, it is not affirming the break in the DJIA; and as I have noted, under out time and distance discipline, the Market would not qualify as having broken out until both major index do so.

            Both of the Averages remain in their intermediate term uptrends (13443-18443, 1426-2020).

            Volume was flat (again; and not that encouraging); breadth was mixed (again; and again the flow of funds indicator was strong).  The VIX fell and finished within both its short term and intermediate term downtrends.

                And:

            GLD fell and continues to hug the lower boundary of its short term downtrend.  It remains above the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range.

            Bottom line: the Averages remain in a somewhat conflicted state.  Both are in confirmed uptrends.  However, the Dow has broken to a new all time high while the S&P has not.  That said, the pin action looks very much like stocks are in a period of consolidation and will push higher at some point. 

As I noted on Tuesday, our internal indicator supports that notion; however, it doesn’t help my level of anxiety.  Since I developed our indicator and our Valuation Model, the only other time that they have been out of sync was in the 2000 dot com blow off.  As I have done this time, I held fast to the Valuation Model and was rewarded by being too early in our sales by almost a year.  Of course, in the end the Valuation Model proved correct; but that didn’t make that year any easier.

I honestly never thought that this circumstance would happen again; so I never set any rules for dealing with it---though I did consider alternatives.  The problem was there wasn’t any real time experiences in which I could experiment with possible alternative strategies.  The principal course that I considered was the simple one---which was to follow the internal indicator until it rolls over.  So for my own edification this time around: if the S&P ultimately breaks above 1576, I may buy a Market ETF in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio as a trade.  It will be small trade, since this is an experiment.

In the meantime I retain my confidence in our Valuation Model, especially as it applies to individual stocks.  So as our holdings trade into their Sell Half Ranges, our Portfolios will continue to follow our discipline.

            Friendly Fridays (short):

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            US economic data was mixed yesterday: weekly jobless claims fell more than expected, February retail sales were slightly better than anticipated, the January trade deficit and fourth quarter productivity were disappointing.  The jobless claims number was particularly encouraging and that keeps our forecast on track.

            Overseas, the news was not so good: French unemployment reached a 13 year high, German factory orders were lower, the ECB described the EU economy as weak and it along with the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged.  Finally, China warned the Japanese about dumping goods.  Most of the above was not unexpected; although the Chinese statement was the first negative comment on the currency debasement race that I have seen.  If it were to act on its admonition, that could cause some serious heartburn.

            ***over night, small business lending in Italy declined, fourth quarter GDP in Austria fell, Spanish industrial output decreased and German industrial production dropped.

             All that said, investor/media focus remains on the Market itself with pundit after pundit opining about the question I raised above (top or launching pad). 

Bottom line: ‘the economy is on track with our outlook---based on which stocks are overvalued.  As I noted yesterday, technically speaking the S&P could rise to circa 1750 and still be within its long term uptrend.  But (1) most of our stocks are ahead of that index, so their potential upside is likely less, (2) further, the downside represented by Fair Value to say nothing of the lower boundary of the S&P long term uptrend present a not all that attractive risk/reward equation, (3) plus, the tail risks resulting from  out of control Fed money printing and an unraveling of the eurozone are unknowable because we have never been here before and hence lend weight to the risk side.’

            I like our cash position.

            Update on the Q ratio (medium):

            The Dow versus household income (short):

            Morgan Stanley on equity valuation (short):

            And:

In Europe things just keep getting worse---but money does grow on trees (medium):

            Cross border money flows have fallen dramatically in the EU (short):

            For the bulls amongst you (medium):



Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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