Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Target (TGT) 2013 Review


Target is a leading discount retailer concentrated in California, Texas, Florida and the upper Midwest.  It has grown profits and dividends at an 11-15% pace over the last 10 years earning a 15%+ return on equity.  The company faltered a bit in its 2008 fiscal year due to the slowing economy but has since recovered and should continue growing at an above average rate as a result of:

(1) improving comparable store sales and operating margins due to its product innovation, aggressive pricing strategy and its efficient, multi channel marketing strategy,

(2) rising store productivity arising from expanded grocery offering, better store layout and an enhanced in-store shopping experience,

(3) introduction of smaller stores in urban markets,

(4) expansion internationally.

(5) active stock buyback program.

Negatives:

(1)    it is a highly competitive industry,

(2)    a volatile credit market could jeopardize growth plans,

(3)    lack of current geographic diversification,

(4)    its customers are sensitive to macroeconomic factors.

TGT is rated A by Value Line, has a 49% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 2.4%.

   Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio        Since 2003

TGT          2.4%          17%              31               10
Ind Ave      1.7             10                 22              NA 

                Debt/                         EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                Equity         ROE      Since 2003      Margin       Rating

TGT         49%            18%            1                  4%           A
Ind Ave     31               16              NA                4             NA

     Chart

            Note: TGT stock made great progress off its March 2009 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its September 2008 high (red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term, the stock is in an uptrend (straight blue line is the lower boundary).  Intermediate term, it is an uptrend (purple lines).  The wiggly blue line is on balance volume.  The Dividend Growth Portfolio owns a full position in TGT.  The stock is on the Dividend Growth Buy List.  The lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $106.


 
3/13

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