The Morning Call--Monday Morning Chartology

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The Morning Call

1/7/13

The Market

           

    Technical

      Monday Morning Chartology

           The S&P (1466) reset to a new short term uptrend (1401-1471---brown lines) and remains within its intermediate term uptrend (1382-1977).  Note the resistance at 1474.  Additional resistance exists at 1576.  Clearly, momentum is to the upside.

            GLD remains within a short term downtrend.  It also broke the lower boundary of a very short term uptrend---not an encouraging signal.  It remains above the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range.  In the absence of a quick rebound back above the lower boundary of that very short term uptrend, our Portfolios will reduce their GLD position to 2-3%.

            The plunge in the VIX continued.  It is now below not only the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and the lower boundary of a very short term uptrend but also below the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range.  This should be a positive for stocks; but I have provided a five year chart to provide some historical perspective.  The VIX may be going to 0 and stocks to Mars; but it is worth considering the alternative.

            Sentiment report:

            http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2013/sentiment_report_20130103.php

            The twitter sentiment indicator:

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Blair-Jensen-130107-Gauging-Investor-Sentiment-with-Twitter.php

            Update on ‘the best stock market indicator ever’:

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Carlucci-Best-Indicator-Ever-Update.php

    Fundamental

    

            No easing in the EU crisis (medium):

            http://american.com/archive/2013/january/no-easing-in-the-european-crisis

            Although the conclusions of this recent IMF study could lead to less austerity (medium):

            http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/01/imf-admits-more-mistakes.html

            The latest from Charles Biderman (7 minute video):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-04/why-decembers-front-loaded-gain-will-be-januarys-pain-biderman-explains

            Update on Market valuation (short):

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Market-Valuation-Overview.php

            Update on Citi’s economic surprise indicator (short):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-06/what-happened-last-four-times-us-macroeconomic-surprises-hit-three-month-low

           News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

            The budget deficit grows (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-04/friday-night-dump-cbo-admits-error-now-expects-another-600-billion-deficits-obama-ta

            The impact of a 1% rise in Treasury rates (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-06/magic-compounding-impact-1-change-rates-total-2022-us-debt

            Why the upcoming debt ceiling debate is so important (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-06/guest-post-houston-weve-got-us-problem

Politics

  Domestic

Calculate how much your taxes are going up:

http://calculator2.taxpolicycenter.org/index.cfm

            Obama’s mandate had two parts (medium):

            http://www.nationalreview.com/author/56454/latest#

            Nothing has changed (medium):

            http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/336909/take-hostage-rich-lowry

            George Will on our entitlement state (medium):

            http://www.jewishworldreview.com/cols/will010313.php3

            Thoughts on ‘fair share’ (medium):
            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-06/guest-post-economic-calculation-fair-share

            Your tax dollars at work (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-06/dole-and-watching-pole-new-normal-ebt-card-user

  International War Against Radical Islam

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.