Saturday, January 19, 2013

The Closing Bell--Does our ruling class know the meaning of fiscal responsibility?


The Closing Bell

1/19/13

Statistical Summary

   Current Economic Forecast

           
            2012

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product:                      +1.0- +2.0%
                        Inflation (revised):                                                             2.5-3.5 %
Growth in Corporate Profits:                                          5-10%

            2013

                        Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                       +1.0-+2.0
                        Inflation (revised)                                                             2.5-3.5
                        Corporate Profits                                                              0-7%

   Current Market Forecast
           
            Dow Jones Industrial Average

                                    Current Trend (revised):  
                                    Short Term Uptrend                                13093-13759
Intermediate Uptrend                              13179-18179
Long Term Trading Range                      7148-14180
Very LT Up Trend                                       4546-15148        
                                               
                        2012    Year End Fair Value                                     11290-11310

                        2013    Year End Fair Value                                11590-11610                                          

            Standard & Poor’s 500

                                    Current Trend (revised):
                                    Short Term Uptrend                                     1421-1490
                                    Intermediate Term Uptrend                       1393-1993 
                                    Long Term Trading Range                        766-1575
                                    Very LT Up Trend                                       651-2007
                       
                        2012    Year End Fair Value                                      1390-1410

                        2013   Year End Fair Value                                       1430-1450         

Percentage Cash in Our Portfolios

Dividend Growth Portfolio                              35%
            High Yield Portfolio                                        35%
            Aggressive Growth Portfolio                           36%

Economics/Politics
           
The economy is a modest positive for Your Money.  This week’s economic data was tilted heavily to the plus side: positives---weekly mortgage and purchase applications. December housing starts, December industrial production, weekly jobless claims, December retail sales, November business inventories and sales, PPI; negatives---December consumer sentiment, the NY and Philly Fed manufacturing indices; neutral---weekly retail sales and CPI.

These stats are very encouraging coming as they do on a string of generally upbeat weekly reports.  They clearly confirm our positive economic growth scenario and keep the recessionistas at bay.  The temptation is to get overly jiggy with this trend.  However, as you know the last three years have witnessed a somewhat erratic flow of data: a series of positive stats followed by a string of negative to neutral numbers.  In addition, (1) there is a negative impact on aggregate economic activity coming of the recent tax increases and (2) I am not optimistic about the ultimate outcome of the debt ceiling/sequestration/spending cut negotiations, i.e. nothing fiscally responsible will come out of them.  Hence, for the time being, I am sticking with our forecast:

‘a below average secular rate of recovery resulting from too much government spending, too much government debt to service, too much government regulation, a financial system with an impaired balance sheet. and a business community unwilling to hire and invest because the aforementioned along with the likelihood a rising and potentially corrosive rate of inflation due to excessive money creation and the historic inability of the Fed to properly time the reversal of that monetary policy.’

            New Update on the big four economic indicators:

The pluses:

(1) our improving energy picture.  The US is awash in cheap, clean burning natural gas.... In addition to making home heating more affordable, low cost, abundant energy serves to draw those manufacturers back to the US who are facing rising foreign labor costs and relying on energy resources that carry negative political risks. 
     
      However, Goldman sees oil at $150 this summer (short):


(2) an improving Chinese economy. This week, Chinese GDP, industrial production and retail sales were all reported above expectations.  To be sure, everyone knows that the Chinese make numbers up if they don’t fit the narrative.  However, given the global economic improvement that we are seeing, I will stipulate that, at the least, the Chinese economy is growing and likely at a faster pace than our own.

       The negatives:

(1)    a vulnerable banking system.  This week the German central bank asked for a portion of its gold currently held in New York, London and Paris to be returned; and a movement is afoot in The Netherlands to follow a similar course.  While we may never know the real reason for such a move, it certainly suggests a lack of confidence in the global central banks.

In another development, the study by the JPM task force investigating the massive CIO loses was released.  Here is an excerpt (medium and a must read):

‘My concern here is that: [a] investors ultimately lose confidence in our financial institutions and refuse to invest in America and [b] the recent scandals are simply signs that our banks are not as sound and well managed as we have been led to believe and, hence, are highly vulnerable to future shocks, particularly a collapse of the EU financial system.’
    

(2)    the ‘debt ceiling/sequestration/spending cut cliff’.  Having been reasonably successful in negotiating the ‘fiscal cliff’, our political class is now faced with additional deadlines tied to [a] the debt ceiling, [b] the effective date of the sequestration part of the ‘fiscal cliff agreement and [c] the need to either produce a budget or pass a ‘continuing resolution’.  Getting through  those hurdles is apt to be more difficult than the tax extension compromise.     

But before getting into that aspect of our budget dilemma, I want to back track on the tax increase portion of the problem.  I said last week that I thought the outcome was reasonably positive because [a] the fiscal cliff was averted, [b] income taxes were raised on only a small percentage of Americans and [c] the AMT was fixed.  However, I failed to note that in addition to the tax increases on ‘the wealthy’, FICA taxes will resume.  I have seen estimates that these two taxes along with the new Obamacare taxes could reduce household income by 2-3% this year.  While this is not an earthshaking number, it will have a consequence, adding yet another drag on economic growth.  I am not altering our forecast; but I am warning that I could as the impact of these taxes shows up in first quarter 2013 data.    

Now back to the debt ceiling: I have opined that I believe that the GOP will probably not shut down the government over the debt ceiling negotiations; but that they would make a stand during the debate on one or more of the debt deadlines mentioned above.  Friday afternoon, the republicans announced that they would be willing to pass a three month rise in the debt ceiling IF the senate passed a budget [something that they haven’t done in four years] and if not, then they don’t get paid.

This maneuver accomplishes a couple of things: [a] Obama and dems can’t accuse them of wanting to shut down the government or not pay the government’s bills, [b] they are asking for something perfectly reasonable from the dems---which puts the ball back in their court and [c] it is incremental and repeatable. 

Whether it works or not is anyone’s guess at this point.  More importantly, if it does work, I am not sure just how much fiscal responsibility  the GOP will insist on.  At the moment, my best guess is that any cuts will likely be more accounting fluff than a real stab at fiscal responsibility. 

Of course, I could be wrong and meaningful spending reductions will be enacted. I hope that I am wrong.  Whatever the outcome, I believe that this debate represents a line in the sand.  That is, if our political class doesn’t act decisively to reduce the size of government intervention in the economy, I think that we will have taken another giant step toward becoming a European style big government nanny state.  

Not to wax too philosophical here, but this country’s founding document is a Constitution that narrowly defined the role of government and left everything else to the states and citizens.  We have reached a point where our government is doing the exact opposite: creating and funding regulations that address ‘everything else’ while simultaneously ignoring its defined role, e.g. producing an annual budget [protecting the right to bear arms?]. 

I personally find it unacceptable that each of us has to live within our means---I don’t know about you, but the last four years witnessed some harsh fiscal steps in my household---while our political class goes on its merry way, raising its own salaries, throwing money at its constituent rent seekers, bailing out [with no penalties, I might add] a banking class that nearly destroyed our economy and financing it all by taxing a small percentage of the electorate and incurring an inexcusable level of debt that will only be repaid via a debauched currency and taxing that same small percentage of the electorate.

OK, I have vented enough.  But my point remains---I believe that the upcoming spending cut discussions are critical in the sense that they are a signpost on the direction of this country.  A failure to act fiscally responsible will likely lead to a permanent decline in the future growth rate of this country’s economy, hampered as it will be by too much government spending, too much government debt to service, too much phony money floating around the economy and too much regulation.

To be clear, this isn’t a disaster scenario.  It is just not as good as it could  be and it does move the country closer to the potential for more severe usurpation of financial and individual rights.

A problem related to the ‘fiscal cliff’ is the potential rise in interest rates and its impact on the fiscal budget.  As I have noted previously, the US government’s debt has grown to such a size that its interest cost is now a major budget line item---and that is with rates at/near historic lows.  Moreover, government debt continues to increase and the lion’s share of this new debt is being bought by the Fed. 

So the risk here is two fold: [a] to the Fed---its balance sheet is levered to the point that Lehman Bros. looks like it was an AAA credit.  So if interest rates go up {and prices go down}, the very thin equity piece of the balance sheet would disappear.  The Fed would then be technically bankrupt. and [b] to the Treasury---it must pay the interest charges.  Hence, if rates go up, the interest costs to the government go up; and if they go up a lot, then this budget line item will explode and make all the more difficult any vow to reduce government spending as a percent of GDP and/or manage the fiscal cliff.
                 
(3)   rising inflation:

[a] the potential negative impact of central bank money printing.  This week, the Japanese basically doubled down on their new ‘all in’ strategy.  The PM made a Draghi-like ‘what ever is necessary’ pledge, which I assume will shove their money printing into overdrive.

‘The risk of a massive global liquidity infusion is, of course, inflation.  The bulls argue that thus far, all this money has gone into bank reserves [meaning it has not been spent or lent], that as long as banks are too scared to lend and businesses to borrow, it will remain unspent and unlent and therefore will have no inflationary impact.  And they are absolutely correct.  But the whole point of the Fed’s exercise, i.e. QEIII {QEIV}, is to encourage banks to lend and businesses to invest.  So on the off chance that the plan works, inflationary pressures will grow unless the Fed withdraws the aforementioned reserves before inflation kicks in.
                             
And therein lies the rub.  [a] Bernanke has already said {four times} that when it comes to balancing the twin mandates of inflation versus employment, he would err on the side of unemployment {that is, he won’t stop pumping until he is sure unemployment is headed down}.  That can only mean that the fires of inflation will already be well stoked before the Fed starts tightening and [b] history clearly shows that the Fed has proven inept at slowing money growth to dampen inflationary impulses---on every occasion that it tried.
                       
                        Growth in GDP versus growth in money supply (short):

                        Update on inflation (new):

                        And this must read:


[b] a blow up in the Middle East.  The terrorist action in Algeria  moved Syria to the back burner this week.  The concerning aspect of this latest development is that radical Islam appears to have figured out how to hit the West in the breadbasket.  Not that the killing  innocents is acceptable---but you know like Obama says, murder, like our ambassador in Libya, is just criminal behavior or mob violence.  But when they start going after the oil, they really get everyone’s attention.  Did you notice that suddenly our State Department is now using the word ‘terrorist’ again? 

The point here, is that if the bad guys change tactics from blowing up ships, barracks and embassies to blowing up refineries, pipelines and production facilities, then the risk of higher oil prices will definitely rise.

(4)   finally, the sovereign and bank debt crisis in Europe remains the biggest risk  to our forecast.  The economic and financial news turned a bit sour this week, interrupting a couple weeks of more promising data.  Certainly, this could just be a hiccup; but it clearly punctuates the risk that all may not be well in Europe.

Posted without comment (short):

On the other hand, the euro remains strong and the European securities markets are acting as if all is well. As long as this attitude continues, it keeps our ‘muddle through’ scenario in place and buys time for the southern EU economies to heal and the eurocrats to implement corrective policies.  The problem is, the latter ain’t happenin’---which keeps the odds of this risk occurring higher than it could be.

Bottom line:  the US economy continues to progress.  Indeed, the economic data flow over the last couple of weeks has pushed the risk of recession to even lower levels.  But keep in mind that this improvement does not change my conviction that the secular growth rate of the economy will remain sub par.

Our ruling class continues to do what it does best---which is spend our money.  To be sure, they avoided a crisis with the compromise over taxes.  However, they loaded that legislation as well as the Sandy relief bill with pork; and that doesn’t augur well for a meaningful attack of government spending.  As you know, there are several ‘deadlines’ that still lie ahead related to spending cuts, to wit, the debt ceiling, sequestration and the continuing resolution.  Those offer great opportunity for our elected representatives to do the right thing, fiscally speaking.  However, while I think that we will likely avoid an emotional crisis ala the fiscal cliff accord, I have little confidence that meaningful spending cuts will be forthcoming---the recent proposal by house republicans notwithstanding.  That leaves our economy on a long term growth path that is below average for this country, impaired as it will be by excessive spending, taxing, money printing and regulations.

The biggest risk to our Models is multiple European sovereign/bank insolvencies.  While our forecast is ‘muddling through’, what is disconcerting to me is that (1) the eurocrats are spending all their time in self congratulatory praise for having averted a crisis while doing nothing to correct its underlying causes and (2) I don’t have a handle on how to quantify not ‘muddling through’---which itself adds to the risk. 

This week’s data:

(1)                                  housing: weekly mortgage and purchase applications were up a lot; December housing starts were gangbusters,

(2)                                  consumer: weekly retail sales were mixed while December retail sales were stronger than expected; weekly jobless claims dropped more than forecast; December consumer sentiment was below both estimates and the prior month’s report,   

(3)                                  industry:  December industrial production increased more than anticipated; November business inventories were up and sales were up even more; both the January NY and Philly Fed manufacturing indices were weaker than expected,      
                
(4)                                  macroeconomic: December PPI came in much tamer than forecasted while CPI was right in line; the Fed Beige Book offered little new information.


The Market-Disciplined Investing
           
  Technical

The S&P (1485) finished for the second day above the 1474 resistance level. Under our time and distance discipline, it will confirm the break if it finishes above 1474 at the close Wednesday.  Meanwhile, the DJIA (13649) edged closer to its comparable level (13682), but has yet to penetrate it. 

That leaves the Averages out of sync in only a minor way since both the short  and intermediate term trends are still to the upside.  All signals continue to point to a move higher to at least the 14140/1576 level though the advance may be tempered by the upper boundaries of the Averages short term uptrends (13093-13759, 1421-1490).  Both remain within their intermediate term uptrends (13179-18179, S&P 1493-1988).

Volume on Friday soared though breadth was mixed.  The VIX plunged, closing within its intermediate term downtrend---very positive for stocks.

Bullish sentiment nears extreme levels (medium):

GLD was down fractionally and remains in a short term downtrend and an intermediate term trading range.  However, it did manage to finish above the upper boundary of a very short term downtrend as well as the lower boundary of a very short term uptrend---a hopeful sign.

            Bottom line:

(1)   the Averages are in a short term uptrends [13093-13759, 1421-1490] as well as intermediate term uptrends [13179-18179, 1393-1988].

(2) long term, the Averages are in a very long term [78 years] up trend defined by the 4546-15148, 651-2007 and a shorter but still long term [13 years] trading range defined by 7148-14198, 766-1575. 

   Fundamental-A Dividend Growth Investment Strategy

The DJIA (13649) finished this week about 20.5% above Fair Value (11325) while the S&P (1485) closed 5.8% overvalued (1403).  Incorporated in that ‘Fair Value’ judgment is some sort of half assed compromise on the fiscal (debt ceiling/sequestration/spending cut) cliff, continued money printing, an historically low long term secular growth rate of the economy and a ‘muddle through’ scenario in Europe.

As I opined above, I think the upcoming debt ceiling/sequestration/spending cut discussion will probably not lead to a shutdown in the government; but it will also not get the country any closer to fiscal sanity.  Of course, I could be wrong but given that both the tax and Sandy relief legislation were laden with pork and Obama continued adherence to His ideological purity, I think that the burden of proof is on those who believe Washington will do the right thing.

All that said, the point here is not political (notwithstanding my rant above), it is economic: that is, if our political class is unable or unwilling to deal with their past profligacy:

(1)                             How fast can American business grow its earnings and how do you value those profits when it appears increasingly likely that the future will bring more taxes,  a more difficult environment to raise capital and a rising regulatory burden?  My answer is that slower economic growth, lower rates of return on capital and higher inflation means historically below average earnings growth and higher discount factors [lower P/E’s],

(2)                             Are there better places to invest our money and house our assets than the US?   My answer is yes.  That means less investment in the US, more internationally and moving, or at starting to move, some assets offshore.  As preposterous as that would have sounded twenty or thirty years ago, all one needs to do is look at the behavior of wealthy individuals around the globe today.  Capital is moving to the most friendly environments; and the US is becoming less friendly.

I hate this whole Cassandra, Dr. Doom routine.  I would love to be optimistic about the future.  But the facts are what they are; and we either adjust or we allow our government to take an increasing share of our wealth either through rising taxes or insidious inflation.

Charles Krauthammer with the closest thing to an optimist’s view (medium):


 I recognize that mine is a minority view as witnessed by the current Market run.  Clearly a majority of investors are assuming a much more fiscally sound compromise without big problems.  They may be correct; but until the politicians prove that they are capable of doing the right thing on spending, the assumptions going into our Economic and Valuation Models are that they won’t.

          Europe continues to ‘muddle through’ aided by investors’ belief that the eurocrats have contained the continent’s sovereign/bank debt problem.  Of course, they are doing nothing to fix the economic disaster that is southern Europe; so I don’t believe for a second that the economic risk of recession or the financial risk of serial derivative defaults by EU banks have diminished.  But as long as the Markets give the eurocrats a free ride, the danger of some imminent calamity is held at bay and time is bought for the eurocrats to hopefully do something meaningful.
           
       My investment conclusion:  sub par growth of the US economy will continue.  While this is certainly not a bad news scenario, it does impact the assumptions that go into our Valuation Model.  At the moment, that Model prices stocks in general as modestly above Fair Value and some stock in particular as sufficiently overvalued to warrant reducing the size of  their commitment in our Portfolios.  As you know, reaching overvaluation is a  process that has been building for some time and has gradually resulted in a cash position in our Portfolios at near record levels. 

       In the past, when stocks (as defined by the S&P) are 5% overvalued that has not prevented us from spending cash on those equities that are on our Buy Lists.  However, the ‘fat tails’ of the current risks that we face are of such a magnitude that my judgment is to hold off most purchases, maintaining a large cash reserve to protect principle.

       Looking longer term, I believe that our dysfunctional political process has reached an important crossroad---either the ruling class ceases its profligate spending and recognizes that it is not omniscient regarding how its citizens regulate their own lives or the wise course is to start distancing ourselves from that government.  This can’t and shouldn’t be done in one fatal swoop; but slowly and thoughtfully.  After all, we can never know when or if our leaders might suddenly realize the error of their ways.

       My first steps will be to diversify more of our Portfolios’ assets in non US investments.  Over the next months, I will be reducing the US equity portion of our Portfolios to around 60% while building the positions in foreign stocks, REIT’s  and gold.

       Future steps if they become necessary will be to establish a financial presence overseas and then build those commitments if conditions in the US continue to deteriorate.  I also intend to explore various countries that offer friendly environments to US citizens.  Clearly packing up and moving is an extreme action; so my initial purpose is simply to find a place to my suiting that could serve as a retreat when, as and if it is needed.
          
       Returning to the more immediate issues, I am clearly aware that the current  investment strategy puts me in direct conflict with Market consensus.  I am also aware that our Portfolios are experiencing a substantial opportunity cost carrying a large (virtually non interest bearing) cash balance. 

       It is particularly difficult at a time that I also believe that the economy will continue to make progress.  But unless I plug into our Models what I believe are unrealistic assumptions that lead to an increase in the secular growth rate of the US economy with little risk of inflation, I simply can’t get to meaningfully higher equity valuations.  Of course, I may be proved wrong on those assumptions.  But I believe them strongly enough that I am willing to suffer the short term opportunity cost in order to protect principle.’

            Last week, our High Yield Portfolio Sold one half of its holding of Sanofi American and re-invested the proceeds in Pioneer Southwest Energy.

       Four dubious assumptions driving the Market higher (medium):

      Update on revenue and earnings ‘beat’ rate so far (short):

       Bottom line:

(1)                             our Portfolios will carry a high cash balance,

(2)                                we continue to include gold and foreign ETF’s in our asset mix because we continue to believe that inflation is a major long term risk [which is now under review].  An investment in gold is an inflation hedge and holdings in other countries provide exposure to better growth opportunities. 

(3)                                defense is still important.

DJIA                                                    S&P

Current 2013 Year End Fair Value*                11600                                            1440
Fair Value as of 1/31/13                                   11325                                                  1403
Close this week                                                13649                                                  1485

Over Valuation vs. 1/31 Close
              5% overvalued                                 11919                                                    1473
            10% overvalued                                 12457                                                   1543 
            15% overvalued                             13023                                             1613
            20% overvalued                                 13590                                                    1683   
            25% overvalued                                   14156                                                  1753               
Under Valuation vs.1/31 Close
            5% undervalued                             10758                                                      1332
10%undervalued                           10192                                             1262   
 15%undervalued                             9626                                                    1192

* Just a reminder that the Year End Fair Value number is based on the long term secular growth of the earning power of productive capacity of the US economy not the near term   cyclical influences.  The model is now accounting for somewhat below average secular growth for the next 3 to 5 years with somewhat higher inflation. 

The Portfolios and Buy Lists are up to date.


Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973.  His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder. Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns,  managing a risk arbitrage hedge fund and an investment banking boutique specializing in funding second stage private companies.  Through his involvement with Strategic Stock Investments, Steve hopes that his experience can help other investors build their wealth while avoiding tough lessons that he learned the hard way.







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