The Morning Call
6/26/25
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/crypto-megacaps-rise-dismal-data-drags-rate-cut-odds-higher
Wednesday
in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
JP Morgan traders
turn tactically bullish.
While UBS turns tactically
bearish.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ubs-prop-short-squeeze-rally-has-gone-too-far-time-start-selling
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 236,000
versus consensus of 245,000.
Final Q1 GDP growth
was -0.5% versus projections of -0.2%; real consumer spending rose 0.5% versus
+1.2%; PCE prices were up 3.7% versus up 3.6%.
May new home sales
fell 13.7% versus estimates of down 5.8% (see Update on home affordability
below).
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/25/new-home-sales-retreat-to-7-month-low
May durable goods
orders grew 16.4% versus expectations of +8.5%; ex transportation, they were up
0.5% versus 0.0%.
The May Chicago
national activity index came in at -.28 versus forecasts of -.1.
International
The July German
consumer confidence index was -20.3 versus predictions of -19.3.
Other
The bedraggled dollar.
The latest from John Hussman.
Overnight
News
The dollar sold
off to a 3 year low and treasury yields fell on bets that US rate cuts may come
sooner than expected as Trump increases pressure on Powell. The WSJ reported he
may name a replacement for the Fed chair as early as September. Among those
being considered for the job are former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, NEC Director
Kevin Hassett, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
US Senate
Republicans are reportedly considering delaying cuts to Medicaid in a bid to
win over more moderate holdouts from the party, who threaten progress of the
Reconciliation Bill.
Congress is still
hashing out Trump’s tax bill, with the SALT deduction a point of tension
between the chambers. US Republican Representative Lalota said, in reference to
SALT, "We are far from a deal still." Senator Susan Collins
also floated a tax hike on those making more than $100 million a year.
US President Trump
is set to hold a “One, Big, Beautiful Event” at the White House on Thursday to
urge the Senate to pass the reconciliation bill, according to a White House
official.
US tariffs will
probably fall well below the April 2 levels after negotiations with trade
partners, Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender said. Meanwhile, Japan
said it can’t accept 25% tariffs on its cars, a sticking point in talks.
China has taken a
series of actions in the past week on counter-narcotics, in a sign of
cooperation with U.S. demands for stronger action on the synthetic opioid
fentanyl, a key irritant in the bilateral relationship.
India and US trade talks face roadblocks ahead of the
tariff deadline, according to Reuters citing sources; India is resisting tariff
cuts without US commitments; delegation is exp. to travel to US before
deadline.
Monetary
policy
No alternative to ‘wait and see.’
Fiscal
Policy
Washington’s fiscal doomsday.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stockman-washingtons-fiscal-doomsday
Case in point.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/21-states-sue-trump-admin-over-clause-used-cut-federal-funding
The upside to social security’s ‘insolvency.’
Six million student loan borrowers on track to
have their wages garnished.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/six-million-student-loan-borrowers-on-track-to-have-wages-garnished/
Inflation
Update on home affordability.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/06/median-income-earning-households-priced.html
Geopolitics
Reverberations are far from over.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/06/24/trump-israel-iran-war/
The latest on the extent of damage to Iran’s
nuclear program.
Investing
A warning.
https://www.axios.com/2025/06/24/iran-war-tariffs-stock-market
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Kroger (NYSE:KR) declares $0.35/share quarterly dividend, 9.4% increase from
prior dividend of $0.32.
What
I am reading today
An interview with
Ken Griffin.
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
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