Tuesday, June 17, 2025

The Morning Call---Another great argument for dividend growth investing

 

The Morning Call

 

6/17/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/ww3-ww3-stocks-oil-gold-crypto-swing-wildly-mideast-headline-roulette

               

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map

 

            Retail goes on another short squeeze spree.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-goes-historic-short-squeeze-spree-sparking-hedge-fund-bloodbath

 

            Margin debt rose 8.3% in May.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/16/margin-debt-jumps-may-2025

 

JP Morgan trading desk turns tactically bearish; although to me this commentary smacks of being too finely tuned.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-are-due-pullback-after-correctly-calling-high-and-low-jpmorgans-desk-turns

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          May retail sales fell 0.9% versus predictions of -0.7%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-retail-sales-tumbled-may-gas-prices-fell-car-buying-stalled

 

The June NY Fed manufacturing index was reported at -16 versus consensus of -5.5.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/2025/06/16/empire-state-manufacturing-survey-june-2025

 

                        International

 

The June EU economic sentiment index came in at 35.3 versus expectations of 23.5; the June German economic sentiment index was 47.5 versus 35.0; the June German current conditions index was -72 versus -74.

 

                        Other

                       

                          Update on household net worth.

                          https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2025/06/household-net-worth-update.html

 

            Overnight News

 

The Senate’s draft tax bill calls for increasing an investment credit for semiconductor manufacturers, a potential boon for chipmakers that the Trump administration is urging to increase the size of their US projects. The measure would increase the tax credit to 30% of investments in plants, up from 25%.

 

The US and Japan failed to reach an agreement on a trade package on the sidelines of the G7 summit, an outcome that leaves the Asian nation inching closer to a possible recession as the pain of US tariffs hits its economy.

 

The BOJ will cut its bond purchases by ¥200 billion ($1.34 billion) per quarter starting next year, versus the current reduction of ¥400 billion per quarter. It stood pat on rates, as expected. JGB futures slid and the yen erased losses.

 

            Inflation

 

I am not sure how to square this data with the recent trend in lower inflation; but it does suggest that it may be too soon to get jiggy.

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/06/tariffs-and-consumer-prices-at-high-frequency

 

    Investing

 

            Three charts that will surprise you.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/06/3-charts-that-will-surprise-you/

 

            Another great argument for dividend growth investing.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/06/16/investment-signal-noise

 

            The Middle East conflict complicates the macro outlook.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-israel-iran-conflict-complicates-the-macro-outlook/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            Very bad advice.

            https://collabfund.com/blog/very-bad-advice/

 

            Milei’s gift to the pope.

            https://www.wsj.com/opinion/javier-mileis-gift-for-pope-leo-free-market-hayek-fatal-conceit-f0e79eef?mod=opinion_lead_pos9

 

           

 

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