The Morning Call
6/17/25
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
Monday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map
Retail goes on
another short squeeze spree.
Margin debt rose 8.3%
in May.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/16/margin-debt-jumps-may-2025
JP Morgan trading
desk turns tactically bearish; although to me this commentary smacks of being
too finely tuned.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
May retail sales fell 0.9% versus predictions
of -0.7%.
The June NY Fed
manufacturing index was reported at -16 versus consensus of -5.5.
International
The June EU
economic sentiment index came in at 35.3 versus expectations of 23.5; the June
German economic sentiment index was 47.5 versus 35.0; the June German current conditions
index was -72 versus -74.
Other
Update
on household net worth.
https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2025/06/household-net-worth-update.html
Overnight
News
The Senate’s draft
tax bill calls for increasing an investment credit for semiconductor
manufacturers, a potential boon for chipmakers that the Trump administration is
urging to increase the size of their US projects. The measure would increase
the tax credit to 30% of investments in plants, up from 25%.
The US and Japan
failed to reach an agreement on a trade package on the sidelines of the G7
summit, an outcome that leaves the Asian nation inching closer to a possible
recession as the pain of US tariffs hits its economy.
The BOJ will cut its bond purchases by
¥200 billion ($1.34 billion) per quarter starting next year, versus the current
reduction of ¥400 billion per quarter. It stood pat on rates, as expected. JGB
futures slid and the yen erased losses.
Inflation
I am not sure how
to square this data with the recent trend in lower inflation; but it does suggest
that it may be too soon to get jiggy.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/06/tariffs-and-consumer-prices-at-high-frequency
Investing
Three charts that
will surprise you.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/06/3-charts-that-will-surprise-you/
Another great
argument for dividend growth investing.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/06/16/investment-signal-noise
The Middle East
conflict complicates the macro outlook.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-israel-iran-conflict-complicates-the-macro-outlook/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Very
bad advice.
https://collabfund.com/blog/very-bad-advice/
Milei’s gift to the pope.
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