Thursday, May 26, 2022

The Morning Call---Recession now appears of more concern then inflation

 

The Morning Call

 

5/26/22

 

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

           

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-soar-hawkish-fed-minutes-dismal-data

 

Note: the rally yesterday carried the S&P above that downtrend off its April high (1) marking a higher low and (2) closing above the prior lower high. That is the first technical positive in over a month. Follow through.

 

            Another analyst that thinks that interest rates may be peaking.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-recent-rise-in-us-interest-rates-peaking/#more-18059

 

            And one more.

            https://alephblog.com/2022/05/25/changing-direction-slightly/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly jobless claims totaled 210,000 versus estimates of 215,000.

 

The second estimate of Q1 GDP growth was -1.5% versus predictions of -1.3%; the second estimate of the price index was +8.1% versus +8.0%; the preliminary corporate profit growth was -4.3% versus +0.5%.

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Watch what consumers do, not what they say.

                          https://www.ft.com/content/9e52ad0c-db50-4eef-a945-50f978b9937d

           

            The Fed

 

The FOMC released the minutes from its latest meeting. I am not going to go through them because a lot has changed since then that make the discussion somewhat obsolete. That said, here they are for those who care.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fomc-minutes-4

 

            Inflation

 

              Employment related inflation has peaked.

              https://thereformedbroker.com/2022/05/25/employment-related-inflation-has-peaked/

 

            Recession

 

              The housing bubble is getting ready to pop.

  https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/05/housing-bubble-getting-ready-to-pop-unsold-inventory-of-new-houses-spikes-by-most-ever-to-highest-since-2008-      with-9-months-supply-sales-collapse-at-prices-below-400k.html

 

              Ed Yardini raised the odds of recession.

              https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=economy

 

            Geopolitics

 

              A different view of what is occurring in Ukraine.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-nato-vs-russia-what-happens-next

 

     Bottom line.

           

            What we should remember about bear markets.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2022/05/24/what-we-should-remember-about-bear-markets/

 

            Hedge funds brace for $20 billion in redemptions.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-25/hedge-funds-brace-for-20-billion-of-redemptions-citco-says?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Among investors, recession now appears more of a concern than inflation.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-24/rupture-in-the-stock-bond-bolt-shows-recession-angst-rising-fast?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Earnings math catches up to tech highflyers.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-24/earnings-math-catches-up-with-the-tech-highflyers?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Bank of Nova Scotia press release (NYSE:BNS): FQ2 Non-GAAP EPS of C$2.18 beats by C$0.22.

Revenue of C$7.94B (+2.6% Y/Y) beats by C$70M.

 

Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS) declares CAD 1.03/share quarterly dividend, 3% increase from prior dividend of CAD 1.00.

 

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) declares $4.88/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous

 

Medtronic press release (NYSE:MDT): FQ4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.52 misses by $0.04.

Revenue of $8.09B (-1.2% Y/Y) misses by $340M.

 

Medtronic (NYSE:MDT) declares $0.68/share quarterly dividend, 7.9% increase from prior dividend of $0.63.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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