The Morning Call--Please don't make it worse

 

The Morning Call

 

5/18/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

               

                Tuesday in the charts.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-surge-bonds-purge-fedspeak-offers-nothing-new

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were down 11.0% while purchase applications were down 11.9%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew less rapidly than in the prior week.

 

March business inventories rose 2.0% versus forecasts of +1.9%; retail inventories, ex autos, were up 2.5% versus +2.3%.

 

April industrial production advanced 1.1% versus predictions of +0.5%; capacity utilization was 79% versus 78.6%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/05/17/the-big-four-industrial-production-up-1-1-in-april

 

April housing starts were down 0.2% versus expectations of +2.1%; April building permits were down 3.2% versus -3.5%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-housing-starts-permits-plunge-april-mortgage-rates-soar

 

The May housing index came in at 69 versus consensus of 75.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/05/nahb-builder-confidence-decreased-to-69.html

 

                        International

 

Preliminary Japanese Q1 GDP growth declined 1.0% versus estimates of -1.8%; capital expenditures were up 0.5% versus +0.7%; private consumption was flat versus -0.5%; March industrial production was up 0.3%, in line.

 

April UK CPI came in at 2.5% versus projections of +2.6%; core CPI was +0.7% versus +0.8%; April retail sales were up 3.4%, in line.

 

April EU CPI was +0.6%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Powell reiterates hawkish stance.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/watch-live-fed-chair-powell-future-inflation

 

The author rightly points out the past errors of the Fed; but, in my opinion, advocating more government intervention in the economy will only make matters worse because the political class doesn’t have the objectivity to do it properly.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/05/when-central-bank-saviours-are-the-problem.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Note to political class: bad policy created inflation; please don’t make it worse.

              https://reason.com/2022/05/16/bad-policy-creates-inflation-and-opens-the-door-to-even-worse-ideas/

 

              No need to raise taxes.

              http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2022/05/no-need-to-raise-taxes.html

 

            Inflation

 

              JP Morgan sees gasoline prices at $6+ a gallon in August.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-sees-gas-prices-hitting-620-august

 

     Bottom line

 

            There is no such thing as a free lunch.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/05/15/weekly-market-pulse-tanstaafl/

 

            Risk management should always be an investors first concern.

            https://humbledollar.com/2022/05/four-horsemen/

 

            Disruptor stocks are dead.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/05/17/disruptor-stocks-are-dead

 

BofA study shows portfolio cash levels at highs. The bottom may not be in, but I think this is a positive, i.e., a lot of selling has already been done.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mood-wall-street-has-never-been-more-apocalyptic-tech-short-biggest-2006

               

            Counterpoint.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cfvdf2ykze

                                                                                                        

            What are the odds of making a good investment?

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2022/05/17/what-are-the-odds-of-making-a-good-investment/

 

            The disinflationary impact of Fed policy on equities.

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-disinflationary-impact-of-fed-policy-on-equities/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Technically%20Speaking%20The%20Disinflationary%20Impact%20Of%20Fed%20Policy%20On%20Equities&utm_content=Technically%20Speaking%20The%20Disinflationary%20Impact%20Of%20Fed%20Policy%20On%20Equities+CID_02426d45efb62336ffc38b0867bff0e9&utm_source=RIA%20Email%20Marketing%20Software&utm_term=READ%20MORE

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

           

 

 

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