Wednesday, May 25, 2022

The Morning Call---Are we nearing peak inflation?

 

The Morning Call

 

5/25/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-dump-bonds-bullion-jump-after-dismal-data

 

Note: yesterday, the S&P marked a fourth lower high off the April high. The question is now, will it make a fourth lower low. If it does so, then the index will take out the 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement level---and that would not be good news.

 

            Credit spreads are starting to point to a bottom in stocks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/when-will-fed-capitulate-and-stop-hiking-finally-some-good-news-bulls

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications declined 1.2% while purchase applications were up 0.2%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew less rapidly than in the prior week.

 

                          April new home sales fell 16.6% versus projections of -1.0%.

 

April durable goods orders rose 0.4% versus expectations of +0.6%; ex transportation, they were up 0.3% versus +0.6%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-durable-goods-orders-disappoint-april

 

The May flash manufacturing PMI came in at 57.5, in line; the services PMI was 53.5 versus 55.2; the composite PMI was 53.8 versus 55.5.

 

The May Richmond Fed manufacturing index was reported at -9 versus estimates of +12.

 

                        International

 

The March Japanese leading economic indicators were 100.8 versus predictions of 101.0.

 

The June German consumer confidence index was -26, in line.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              ECB signals the end of negative interest rate experiment.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/ecb-signals-end-to-negative-interest-rates-by-september-11653299391

 

            Inflation

 

              Are we nearing peak inflation?

              https://www.tker.co/p/inventories-delivery-times-labor-shortage-change?s=r

 

              Oil may be signaling just that.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/peak-inflation-watch-oil-edition-24-may-2022/

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.ft.com/content/6b164dc7-0329-4efc-b19d-efe000831792

 

              Campbell’s tomato soup prices keep rising.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/05/campbells-tomato-soup-prices-keep.html#.Yo0m3HbMKUk

 

              Gasoline prices continue to go up.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/05/24/weekly-gasoline-prices-regular-up-a-dime

 

              A season of pain.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/05/24/a-season-of-pain

 

              Imperfect CPI.

              https://ritholtz.com/2022/05/flawed-but-useful/

 

            Recession

 

              Is a recession inevitable?

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/05/22/weekly-market-pulse-inevitable/

 

              Recessions bring opportunity.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/05/24/recessions-bring-opportunity-the-risk-lies-in-how-you-react-to-it

 

            The coronavirus

 

              Another study shows that Sweden had it right.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/new-who-covid-report-once-again-proves-sweden-right

 

     Bottom line

 

            Will this decline just be a P/E adjustment?

            https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=valuation

 

This is a must read article on company valuation. It deals with valuing young companies; but many of the principles the author espouses apply equally to valuing mature companies.

https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2022/05/24/tell-me-a-story-aswath-damodaran-on-valuing-young-companies/

 

     Buyer Alert

 

At the open, the Dividend Growth will Buy a one fourth position in Ross Stores (ROST) and Add to its position in Nike (NKE).

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

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