The Morning Call--The national debt is only getting worse

 

The Morning Call

 

5/3/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/may-day-mayhem-equity-flash-crashes-bond-blowouts-commodity-chaos

 

            Update on margin debt.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cotatdq0b5

 

            Ray Dalio updates his bubble indicators.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/were-out-bubble-extremes-bridgewaters-dalio-warns-overvalued-us-stock-market-still-not-safe

 

            Gold at critical support level.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cnofq1whfj

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          March construction spending was up 0.1% versus projections of +0.7%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/05/construction-spending-increased-01-in.html

 

The April ISM manufacturing index came in at 55.4 versus estimates of 57.6.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/05/02/april-ism-manufacturing-index-demand-up-supply-chain-issues-remain

 

The final April manufacturing PMI was 59.2 versus consensus of 59.7.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/05/02/april-markit-manufacturing-activity-strengthens

 

                        International

 

                          The March German unemployment rate was 5.0%, in line.

 

The March EU unemployment rate was 6.8% versus expectations of 6.7%; March PPI was 5.3% versus 5.0%.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              QT is coming.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-01/global-economy-faces-410b-financial-shock-as-central-banks-pull-back?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          And this won’t help.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-01/biggest-treasury-buyer-outside-u-s-quietly-offloads-billions?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Australia’s central bank shocks with larger than expected rate hike.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/australia-shocks-bigger-expected-rate-hike-lowe-admits-embarrassment-being-so-wrong

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The national debt is only getting worse.

              https://reason.com/2022/04/29/dont-wait-the-national-debt-is-only-getting-worse/

 

            Recession

 

              David Stockman on the latest personal income data.

              https://brownstone.org/articles/real-personal-income-down-20-from-one-year-ago/

 

              Too soon to call a recession.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/04/why-did-u-s-real-gdp-fall

 

              The odds of a recession.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/05/term-spread-models-and-recession-probabilities-for-april-2023

 

              Private debt risks are rising.

             https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/pandemic-debt-moratorium-and-ukraine-war-boost-debt-distress-by-carmen-m-reinhart-and-leora-klapper-2022-05

 

            Geopolitics

 

              The plan to seize oligarchs’ assets sets an appalling precedent.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/3472889-the-plan-to-seize-russian-oligarchs-assets-sets-an-appalling-precedent/

 

     Bottom line

 

            No gain from diversification.

            http://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2022/05/trend-models-tell-same-story-no-gain.html

 

            Morgan Stanley sees the S&P at 3400.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/escalated-quickly-mike-wilson-takes-victory-lap-markets-crash-sees-sp-tumbling-3400

 

            The latest stats from Earnings Tracker on Q1 earnings season.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/end-euphoria-earnings-season-turns-dire-corporate-sentiment-plummets

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Illinois Tool Works press release (NYSE:ITW): Q1 GAAP EPS of $2.11 beats by $0.04.

Revenue of $3.9B (+11.4% Y/Y) beats by $140M.

 

Cummins press release (NYSE:CMI): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $4.04 beats by $0.49.

Revenue of $6.4B (+5.1% Y/Y) beats by $340M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            When draft pundits are right and NFL teams as wrong.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/28/upshot/nfl-draft-surprise-picks.html

 

                        The burden of regulation.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/just-what-should-the-critical-minerals-strategy-be-less-perhaps

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2022/05/quotation-of-the-day-3881.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email

 

 

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