Friday, February 25, 2022

The Morning Call--What the invasion means for the US economy (& Buyer Alert)

 

The Morning Call

 

2/25/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/massive-roundtrips-across-global-markets-russia-sanctions-fears-abate

 

            Nomura explains who BTFD.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nasdaq-soars-back-green-europe-closes

 

            What happens next?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ukraine-war-what-happens-over-next-few-hours-rest-week-and-beyond

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          January new home sales declined 4.5% versus forecasts of -3.9%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/02/24/new-home-sales-down-4-5-in-january

 

January durable goods orders rose 1.6% versus consensus of +0.8%; January personal income was flat versus -0.3%; January personal spending was up 2.1% versus +1.5%; January PCE price index was up 0.6% versus +0.2%; the core PCE price index was +0.5%, in line.

                                   https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/feds-favorite-inflation-indicator-hotter-expected-40-year-highs

 

The February Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was reported at 31 versus projections of 17.

 

                        International

 

                          Q4 German GDP growth was -0.3% versus expectations of -0.7%.

 

December Japanese leading economic indicators came in at 104.8 versus projections of 104.3; February CPI was 1.0% versus +0.4%; core CPI was +0.5% versus +0.3%.

 

February UK consumer confidence was -26 versus estimates of -18.

 

February EU economic sentiment was 114.0 versus forecasts of 113.4; industrial sentiment was 14.0 versus 14.2; services sentiment was 13.0 versus 10.3.

           

                        Other

 

            Geopolitics

 

              What does the Russian invasion of Ukraine mean for the US economy?

              https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/business/economy/russia-ukraine-global-us-economy.html

 

              More trouble for a troubled market.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/business/stock-market-correction.html

 

As you know, I try to avoid political commentary. But this piece by Ann Coulter   which is directed at republicans applies equally to the market.

              https://townhall.com/columnists/anncoulter/2022/02/23/stop-talking-about-ukraine-republicans-n2603708

 

Here are the companies most exposed to the negative consequences of the incursion/sanctions.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/these-are-companies-most-exposed-russia-and-ukraine

 

     Bottom line.

 

            Focus on what you can control.

            https://thereformedbroker.com/2022/02/24/focus-on-what-you-can-control/

           

    Buyer Alert

 

            Yesterday:

 

            The Dividend Growth Portfolio initiated a one half position in Intel ($45).

 

            The Aggressive Growth Portfolio Added to its Universal Display Corp ($159)

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

EOG Resources press release (NYSE:EOG): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.09 misses by $0.08.

Revenue of $6.04B (+103.4% Y/Y) beats by $480M.

 

EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) declares $0.75/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.  The board declared a special dividend of $1.00 per share payable March 29, 2022, to stockholders of record as of March 15, 2022

 

What I am reading today

 

            Curbing Mickey Mouse degrees.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/curbing-the-mickey-mouse-degrees

 

            The discovery of a pterosaur is the biggest fossil of its kind.

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