The Morning Call---What will it take to change sentiment?

 

The Morning Call

 

8/5/21

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-slump-bonds-pumpndump-crypto-jumps

 

            It will take a big price move down to change sentiment.

            https://howardlindzon.com/the-velocity-of-money-in-startupland-ipos-and-ma/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                       

                          Weekly jobless claims were 385,000 versus projections of 384,000.

 

The June trade balance was -$75.7 billion versus forecasts of -$73.9 billion.

 

The July services PMI was reported at 59.9 versus consensus of 59.8; the    July composite was 59.9 versus 59.7.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/08/04/july-markit-services-pmi-softest-rise-in-business-activity-since-february

 

The July ISM nonmanufacturing index came in at 64.1 versus predictions of 60.5.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/08/04/ism-services-report-july-shows-continued-growth

 

July light vehicle sales totaled 14.75 units down 4.1% from the June number.

 

                        International

 

June German factory orders rose 4.1% versus consensus of +1.9%; its July construction PMI was 47.1 versus 47.0 in June.

 

The July EU construction PMI was reported at 49.8 versus 50.3 recorded in June; the July UK construction PMI was 58.7 versus estimates of 64.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          June median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2021/08/median-household-income-in-june-2021.html#.YQrV1ohKiUk

 

            The Fed

 

              Ease up on the stimulus.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/566130-its-time-to-ease-up-on-the-stimulus-accelerator

 

Bank of England leaves rates/QE unchanged but tightens criteria for beginning to unwind.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boe-keeps-policy-unchanged-will-start-balance-sheet-reduction-once-rates-hit-05

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Your democracy at work.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/1-trillion-infrastructure-bill-hits-snag-senators-file-nearly-300-amendments

 

            The coronavirus

 

              The new frontier of coercion (must read):

              https://brownstone.org/articles/forced-medicine-the-new-frontier-in-coercion/

 

              An epidemic of ‘mandatory’.

              https://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2021/08/03/an-epidemic-of-mandatory-n1466326

 

              Understanding incentives.

              https://coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2021/08/crazy-government-responses-to-covid-part-1-understanding-incentives.html

 

     Bottom line.

 

            What is worth worrying about, what is not.

            https://assets.realclear.com/files/2021/08/1861_isv210730bricks_1.pdf

 

Here is another study that demonstrates that the ‘sell’ decision is just as important as the ‘buy’ decision.

            https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2021/08/03/1022840229/why-even-the-most-elite-investors-do-dumb-things-when-investing

 

To date 68% of the S&P companies have reported Q2 earnings; 87.6% have beaten expectations.

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) declares $0.93/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) declares $1.19/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

What I am reading today

 

           

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.