The Morning Call
8/4/21
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday
in the charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-dumpnpump-real-yields-hit-new-record-lows
A
probable force behind the decline in bond yields.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications fell 1.7% as did
purchase applications.
Month to date retail chain store sales grew
faster than in the prior week.
June factory orders rose 1.5% versus forecasts
of +1.0%.
The July ADP private
payroll report showed job gains of 330,000 versus projections of 695,000.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/adp-employment-report-shows-job-gains-stalled-june-weakest-feb
International
June EU retail sales increased 1.5% versus estimates
of +1.7%.
The July Japanese
services PMI came in at 47.4 versus 48.0 in June; the July Chinese Caixin
services PMI was 54.9 versus 50.3 in June; the July German services PMI was
61.8 versus expectations of 62.5; the July EU services PMI was 59.8 versus
60.4; the July UK services PMI was 59.6 versus 57.8.
The July Japanese
composite PMI was 48.8 versus 48.9 recorded in June; the July Chinese Caixin
composite PMI was 53.1 versus 50.6 in June; the July German composite PMI was
60.2 versus consensus of 62.5; the July EU composite PMI was 60.2 versus 60;
the July UK composite PMI was 59.0 versus 57.7.
Other
Business cycle indicators as of August 2nd.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/08/business-cycle-indicators-as-of-august-2
Total household debt increased 2.1% in Q2.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/08/ny-fed-q2-report-total-household-debt.html
The
Fed
Policy errors have consequences.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/07/30/policy-errors-have-consequences
And Bullard sees them.
Fiscal
Policy
The fallacy behind endlessly rising deficits.
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/565792-deficit-ponzi-schemes-meet-cold-fusion
Government funded broadband has been a costly
corrupt failure.
An in depth look at the infrastructure bill
and Biden’s fiscal package.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/qa-infrastructure-bill-and-biden-fiscal-package
The
coronavirus
This is a good
argument for not making the same mistakes with the delta variant as we did with
the original version of the disease. But
there is a huge logical inconsistency in the presentation. The author states that the delta variant is
more contagious (which the data support) AND more severe (which the data does
not support). But then admits there have
been no increase is deaths. How can a
more contagious, more severe disease not cause more deaths?
https://www.aier.org/article/lets-not-repeat-the-same-mistakes-with-the-delta-variant/
The CDC’s
extension of the eviction moratorium appears to be a constitutional question.
The continuing
success of Sweden’s ‘no lockdown’ strategy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/sweden-despite-variants-no-lockdowns-no-daily-covid-deaths
Bottom
line.
Update on valuations.
When valuation matters.
https://compoundadvisors.com/2021/when-valuation-matters
July dividends by the numbers.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
CVS Health (NYSE:CVS): Q2 Non-GAAP
EPS of $2.42 beats by $0.35; GAAP EPS of $2.10 beats
by $0.39.
Revenue
of $72.61B (+11.1% Y/Y) beats by $2.34B.
What
I am reading today
IMF warns against using
crypto as currency ahead of El Salvador launch.
https://www.ft.com/content/c36c45d2-1100-4756-a752-07a217b2bde0
Defining some macroeconomic terms.
https://www.pragcap.com/three-things-i-think-i-think-macro-thoughts/
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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