Tuesday, August 24, 2021

The Morning Call---Ignoring risk

 

The Morning Call

 

8/24/21

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crypto-gold-oil-stocks-soar-dismal-data-dollar-dumps

 

            What’s next?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ccoyzkstjs

 

            When the ducks are quacking, feed them.

            https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/bubble-signs-stock-issuance/

 

            New highs on negative breadth.

            https://sentimentrader.com/blog/approaching-new-highs-on-negative-breadth/

 

            The uptrend is so extended, breaking it is not an option.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/failure-not-option

 

            What do the credit markets know that the stock market is ignoring?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-do-credit-markets-know-stocks-are-choosing-ignore

 

            Most money market rates slide below Fed reverse repo floor.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/most-money-market-instruments-slide-below-feds-reverse-repo-floor-collateral-shortage-gets

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales rose faster than in the prior week.

 

                          July existing home sales were up 2.0% versus estimates of a slight decline.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/08/comments-on-july-existing-home-sales.html

 

The August flash manufacturing PMI was 61.2 versus 62.5; the services PMI was 55.2 versus 59.5; the composite PMI was 55.4 versus 58.3.

 

                        International

 

                          Q2 German GDP grew 1.6% versus expectations of +1.5%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Global economic data disappointing experts.

                          https://www.ft.com/content/f8eaf88b-53f8-4b7f-a110-dcc5ad767c8c

 

            The Fed

 

              What if QE is starting to fail?

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/08/23/did-the-feds-monetary-policy-experiment-just-fail

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

The tradeoffs in running the economy too hot (though that may not be a problem now).

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/23/upshot/biden-economy-analysis-inflation.html

 

              These are your tax dollars.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/quantifying-staggering-costs-us-military-equipment-left-behind-afghanistan

 

            Inflation

 

              The shipping crisis is getting worse.

              https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/23/business/global-supply-chains-christmas-shipping/index.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            Ignoring risk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fastest-bull-market-history-sp-500-doubles

 

            The latest from Morgan Stanley.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-us-consumer-headed-double-dip-recession

 

            Buy businesses not stocks.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/08/20/buy-businesses-not-stocks

 

            Touching the sky.

            https://alephblog.com/2021/08/17/touching-the-sky/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS): FQ3 Non-GAAP EPS of C$2.01 beats by C$0.11; GAAP EPS of C$1.99.

Revenue of C$7.76B (+0.4% Y/Y) misses by C$10M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            How Marx was wrong.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/madsens-intelligence-squared-speech-on-karl-marx-april-2013

 

                Why wouldn’t bitcoin go to $100,000?

            https://thereformedbroker.com/2021/08/23/ask-yourself-this-why-wouldnt-is-go-to-100000/

 

            A video tour of Mars.

            http://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/08/video-tour-of-mars

           

            The majesty of simplicity.

            https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/the-majesty-of-simplicity/

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

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