The Morning Call--What? Inflation may not be transitory.

The Morning Call

 

7/15/21

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bitcoin-bullion-big-tech-bid-powell-promises-purge-producer-price-panic

 

            Market breadth is waning.

            https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2021/07/13/the-stock-market-is-outperforming-most-stocks/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly jobless claims totaled 360,000, in line.

 

The July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was reported at 21.9 versus expectations of 28.0.

 

The July New York Fed manufacturing index came in at 43 versus estimates of 18.

 

                        International

 

May UK average earnings grew 7.3% versus projections of 7.1%; the May unemployment rate was 4.8% versus 4.7%.

 

June Chinese YoY industrial production was up 8.3% versus consensus of +7.8%; June YoY retail sales were up 12.1% versus +11.0%; June YoY fixed asset investment rose 12.6% versus +12.1%: Q2 GDP growth was 1.3% versus 1.2%.

 

                        Other

 

                          China is killing its tech golden goose.

                          https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-government-crackdown-on-didi-and-technology-firms-by-minxin-pei-2021-07

 

            The Fed

 

              The power of the Fed.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/watch-radical-fed-morphs-central-bank-bailout-kingpin-and-americans-arent-paying

 

In yesterday’s Morning Call, I linked to Powell’s prepared remarks to the House Financial Services Committee in which he provided a pretty dovish narrative regrading QE.  In the subsequent Q&A, he staunchly defended his written testimony that tapering remained a long way away.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/watch-live-powell-pushes-back-against-tapering-talk

 

In addition to Powell’s presentation on Capitol Hill, the Fed released its latest Beige Book. In it, the reports from the regional banks (1) showed improving economic activity, but (2) a growing opinion that inflation may not be ‘transitory’.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beige-book-majority-contacts-say-inflation-not-transitory-amid-record-shortages-everything

 

            Inflation

 

              Big changes in inflation and government finances.

              http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2021/07/big-changes-in-inflation-and-government.html

 

              Counterpoint.

              http://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-inflation-is-transitory-narrative-dead/

 

              Rent prices are surging.

              https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/07/12/rent-prices-are-surging-thats-ominous-news-inflation-rates/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

           

What I am reading today

 

            Tectonic plate evolution.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-1-billion-years-tectonic-plate-movement-40-seconds

 

            ECB takes steps toward a digital currency.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-14/ecb-poised-to-take-next-step-in-revolutionizing-euro-zone-money?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Advice on sleeping soundly through the night.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/13/well/mind/sleep-insomnia-tips.html

 

           

 

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