The Morning Call---The Fed can't and won't taper

 

The Morning Call

 

7/30/21

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/robinhood-suffers-worst-big-ipo-debut-ever-dollar-dumps-1-month-lows

 

            NASDAQ at important technical level.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cwmtiz3ian

 

            Seasonality reminder.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ciycifbpqd

 

            The growing day to day volatility in stock prices.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2021/07/growing-day-to-day-volatility-in-stock.html#.YQLZtY5KiUk

 

            US ETF inflows surge.

            https://www.ft.com/content/c6210b52-6381-4bbb-8433-cf4f8691e577

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          June pending home sales fell 1.9% versus consensus of +0.3%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/07/29/pending-home-sales-down-marginally-in-june

 

June personal income grew 0.1% versus projections of -0.3%; personal spending was up 1.0% versus +0.7%.

 

The June PCE price index was +0.5%, in line with the May reading; core PCE was +0.4% versus +0.6%.                                                

 

                        International

 

Q2 EU flash GDP growth was 1.5% versus forecasts of 2.0%; Q2 German flash GDP growth was 1.2% versus 2%.

 

June Japanese YoY housing starts rose 7.3% versus expectations of   +7.2%.

 

The June EU unemployment rate was 7.7% versus estimates 7.9%; July EU CPI was -0.1% versus +0.6% in  June.

                         

                        Other

 

                          Growth is strong but the obstacles to recovery are big.

                         https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/29/upshot/economy-gdp-analysis.html

 

            The Fed

 

              The Fed can’t and won’t taper.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/game-over-0

 

            Inflation

 

             Shrinkflation continues to rise.

                  https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/shrinkflation-inflations-sneaky-cousin-rise

 

            The coronavirus

 

              Covid deaths are the lowest since March 2020.

              https://fee.org/articles/despite-delta-alarmism-us-covid-deaths-are-at-lowest-level-since-march-2020-harvard-and-stanford-professors-explain/

 

              From the street.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/watch-psychic-bro-predicted-all-last-year

 

     Bottom line

 

            Speculation versus a margin of safety.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/07/28/speculation-margin-of-safety-value-investing

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Mastercard (NYSE:MA): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.95 beats by $0.20; GAAP EPS of $2.08 beats by $0.33.

Revenue of $4.5B (+36.4% Y/Y) beats by $130M.

 

Altria (NYSE:MO): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.23 beats by $0.06; GAAP EPS of $1.16 misses by $0.01.

Revenue of $5.6B (-12.1% Y/Y) beats by $240M.

 

Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.13 beats by $0.04; GAAP EPS of $1.13 beats by $0.06.

Revenue of $18.96B (+3.9% Y/Y) beats by $580M.

 

Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW): Q2 GAAP EPS of $2.45 beats by $0.36.

Revenue of $3.68B (+43.8% Y/Y) beats by $120M.

 

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM): Q2 GAAP EPS of $1.10 beats by $0.12.

Earnings increased $5.8 billion over the second quarter of 2020, driven by oil and natural gas demand and best-ever quarterly chemical and lubricants contributions

Revenue of $67.74B (+107.7% Y/Y) beats by $3.78B.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

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