The Morning Call---The coming Minsky moment

 

The Morning Call

 

7/27/21

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dollar-drops-crypto-pops-bonds-stocks-chop

 

            Real yields fall to record lows.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-26/u-s-real-yields-fall-to-record-low-amid-growth-concerns?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Bonds and inflation.

            https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2021/07/26/bonds-and-inflation/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          June new home sales fell 6.6% versus forecasts of +3.5%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/07/26/new-home-sales-down-6-6-in-june

 

June durable goods orders were up 0.8% versus estimates of +2.1%; ex transportation, they were up 0.3% versus +0.8%.

                                  https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-durable-goods-orders-unexpectedly-slow-june

 

The July Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at 27.3 versus the June reading of 31.1.

                                   https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/07/26/july-dallas-fed-manufacturing

               

Note: Above we have two primary indicators that just didn’t fail to meet expectations, they failed miserably.  How many economists do you think are starting to reconsider their rosy growth forecasts?

 

                        International

 

June YoY Chinese industrial profits rose 66.9% versus an +83.4% increase reported in May.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on seven high frequency economic indicators.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/07/seven-high-frequency-indicators-for_26.html

 

                          Profit margins are holding up.

                          https://www.axios.com/profit-margins-cost-inflation-rising-wages-c7e8dab9-9dbb-46c2-a0a3-67fc95442b44.html

 

                          Goldman lowers its GDP growth estimates.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/and-now-hangover-goldman-sees-sharp-deceleration-us-economic-growth-2022

 

            The Fed

 

              Federal Reserve folly.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/07/23/federal-reserve-folly

 

            Inflation

 

              The stagflation threat is real.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/stagflation-threat-very-real-congress-holds-key

 

            The coronavirus

 

              The French warned the US about Wuhan lab in 2015.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/french-intelligence-warned-obama-state-department-about-wuhan-lab-2015-former-official

                       

    Bottom line.

 

            The Market’s next Minsky moment.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-next-minsky-moment

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

3M (NYSE:MMM): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.59 beats by $0.31; GAAP EPS of $2.59 beats by $0.34.

Revenue of $8.95B (+24.7% Y/Y) beats by $360M.

 

UPS (NYSE:UPS): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.06 beats by $0.25; GAAP EPS of $3.05 beats by $0.25.

Revenue of $23.4B (+14.4% Y/Y) beats by $230M.

 

Sherwin Williams (NYSE:SHW): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.65 beats by $0.06; GAAP EPS of $2.42 misses by $0.01.

Revenue of $5.38B (+17.0% Y/Y) misses by $10M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            What if OU and UT join the SEC?

            https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2021/07/25/the-southeastern-conference-will-no-longer-be-the-sec-if-its-expansion-continues/?sh=4f78653317c7

 

                        What improves the chances of solving a murder?

            https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/23/upshot/murder-crime-solving.html

 

            Expanding free will.

            http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2021/07/intentionality-expanding-free-will.html

 

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