The Morning Call---Debunking the delta variant

 

The Morning Call

 

6/30/21

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Tuesday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-black-gold-buck-bounce-england-beat-germany

 

Technically speaking.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warnings-behind-curtain

 

Why fragility is the new reality for the stock market.

https://www.wellington.com/en/insights/market-liquidity-concerns-causing-fragility-us/

 

The tech sector is getting overbought.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cib7xtr8nh

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications dropped 6.9% while purchase applications were down 4.8%.

 

The April Case Shiller home price index rose 2.1% versus +2.2% in March.

https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2021/06/us-new-home-sale-prices-reach-new-highs.html#.YNtGRuhKiUk

 

June consumer confidence came in at 127.3 versus expectations of 119.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/06/29/consumer-confidence-increased-in-june

 

The June 30, 2021 ADP private payroll report showed job increases of 692,000 versus consensus of 600,000.

 

                        International

                           

Q1 final UK GDP growth was -1.6% versus forecasts of -1.5%; Q1 final business investment was -10.7% versus +5.9% recorded in Q4.

 

May Japanese (preliminary) industrial production declined 5.9% versus estimates of -2.4%; May YoY housing starts rose 9.9% versus +8.3%; June consumer confidence came in at 37.4 versus 34.1 in May.

 

The June Chinese manufacturing PMI was 50.9 versus projections of 50.8; the nonmanufacturing PMI was 53.5 versus 55.2 reported in May.

 

The June German unemployment rate was 5.9%, in line.

 

The June EU flash CPI was +0.3%, the same as in May.

 

                        Other

 

                          The wisdom of the Markets.

                          https://alhambrapartners.com/2021/06/27/weekly-market-pulse-1984/

 

                          The coming wave of loan defaults.

                          https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/560495-regulators-must-get-ahead-of-the-coming-wave-of-loan-defaults

 

                The Fed

 

              Tighter policy isn’t tight policy.

                          https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-28/don-t-let-the-hawkish-talk-fool-you-fed-ecb-boj-will-stay-relatively-loose?sref=loFkkPMQ

                       

              China’s central bank strikes positive tone.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-28/china-s-economy-is-stabilizing-and-improving-central-bank-says?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                  How central banks murdered markets.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/Michael-pento-how-central-banks-murdered-markets

               

 

                Fiscal Policy

 

              Our muddled industrial policy.

              https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-innovation-competition-act-misguided-industrial-policy-by-anne-o-krueger-2021-06

 

              The problem with executing Biden’s infrastructure plan.

              https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2021/06/29/there-is-a-massive-roadblock-to-bidens-infrastructure-plan-and-it-isnt-republican-n2591714

 

            Inflation

 

              The drought in the west has major implications for our food supply and prices.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/28/climate/california-drought-farming.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

              Rents are soaring.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/and-now-prices-are-really-soaring-june-rent-jump-biggest-record

 

            The coronavirus

 

              Debunking the scaremongering over the ‘delta’ variant.

              https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2021/06/debunking_the_scaremongering_over_the_delta_variant_of_covid.html

 

              More---panic porn dressed up as science.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/panic-porn-dressed-science-exposing-truth-about-delta-variant

 

     Bottom line.

 

For all the talk about speculation in equities, investor balance sheets are sound.

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1044865/investing-during-an-era-of-speculation

           

            What BofA thinks that means.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-fed-dead-wrong-inflation-americans-have-35-trillion-savings-sunny-day

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE:MSM) declares $0.75/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

General Mills (NYSE:GIS): FQ4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.91 beats by $0.06; GAAP EPS of $0.68 misses by $0.17.

Revenue of $4.52B (-10.0% Y/Y) beats by $160M.

 

General Mills (NYSE:GIS) declares $0.51/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Bifurcation, in black and white.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/bifurcation-in-black-and-white

 

            Another interesting article from Morgan Housel.

            https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/little/

 

 

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