The Morning Call--The biggest bubble of all time

 

The Morning Call

 

6/16/21

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-black-gold-breakevens-bounce-retail-sales-slump-sinks-stocks

 

            Technically speaking.

            https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-slowly-at-first-then-all-at-once/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Technically%20Speaking%20Slowly%20At%20First%20Then%20All%20At%20Once&utm_content=Technically%20Speaking%20Slowly%20At%20First%20Then%20All%20At%20Once+CID_ba11d86fc78c8a9b7752f11b4eff6171&utm_source=RIA%20Email%20Marketing%20Software&utm_term=READ%20MORE

 

            70% of all call options that traded yesterday have an expiry of five days or less.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cp58h65xtc

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 4.2% while purchase applications were up 1.1%.

 

                          April business inventories fell 0.2% versus estimates of -0.1%.

 

May industrial production rose 0.8% versus projections of +0.6%; May housing starts were up 3.6% versus +7.4%; May building permits fell 3% versus flat; May export prices were up 2.2% versus +0.8%; May import prices were up 1.1% versus +0.8%.

                           https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-housing-starts-disappoint-may-permits-plunge-lowest-october

 

                          The June housing industry index came in at 81 versus consensus of 83.

  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/06/15/nahb-housing-market-index-rising-material-challenges-declining-builder-sentiment

 

                       

 

                        International

 

April Japanese machinery orders increased 0.6% versus expectations of   +2.7%; the May trade balance was -Y187.1 billion versus -Y91.2 billion.

 

The May UK CPI was reported at +0.6% versus forecasts of +0.3%; core CPI was +0.8% versus +0.3%; PPI was +0.5% versus +0.4%.

 

May Chinese YoY fixed asset investment was up 15.4% versus projections of 16.9%; YoY industrial production was up 8.8% versus +9.0%; YoY retail sales were up +12.4% versus +13.6%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-stocks-tumble-after-beijing-cracks-down-commodity-prices-econ-data-miss-across-board

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on big four economic indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/06/15/the-big-four-may-real-retail-sales-down-almost-2

 

                          The significance of last week’s jobs report.

                          https://alhambrapartners.com/2021/06/13/weekly-market-pulse-whos-the-boss/

 

                          Another theory on why interest rates are declining.

                          https://creditwritedowns.com/2021/06/risks-to-growth-and-inflation-helping-keep-long-rates-down.html

 

                          The world’s most bubbly housing markets.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/world-s-most-bubbly-housing-markets-flash-2008-style-warnings?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            The Fed

 

              Thank you, Fed.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/charts-should-scare-pants-fed-and-probably-do

 

            Inflation

 

              This is the part that is transitory.

              https://thereformedbroker.com/2021/06/15/it-literally-grows-on-trees/

 

              And this.

              https://finance.yahoo.com/news/copper-corn-markets-show-peak-200357785.html

 

              Container rates continue to skyrocket.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/supply-chain-chaos-container-rates-skyrocket-even-higher-and-theres-no-end-sight

 

              Kyle Bass joins Paul Tudor Jones worrying about inflation.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-already-grappling-real-inflation-rates-above-10-kyle-bass-warns

 

            The coronavirus        

 

              Lessons from the lockdown (must read):

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2021/06/15/what_i_learned_during_the_2020_fight_over_lockdowns_781415.html

 

              Why we sometimes die trying to avoid risk.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-13/covid-risk-is-real-but-don-t-forget-about-life-s-other-dangers?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

       Bottom line.

 

            The biggest bubble of all time.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-big-short-burry-greatest-bubble-all-time-all-things-two-orders-magnitude

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL): FQ4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.54 beats by $0.21; GAAP EPS of $1.37 beats by $0.32.

Revenue of $11.23B (+7.6% Y/Y) beats by $190M.

 

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) declares $0.32/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Hedge funds expect to hold seven percent of their assets in crypto currencies within five years.

            https://www.ft.com/content/4f8044bf-8f0f-46b4-9fb7-6d0eba723017

 

 

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