Tuesday, October 6, 2020

The Morning Call---Nothing matters but intervention

 

The Morning Call

 

10/6/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            The Averages  (28148, 3408) pushed higher yesterday, maintaining the trend of new higher highs.  But that left the two gap up opens down below---which, as you know, I believe will have to be filled.  Plus, the VIX was once again up on a Market up day---a sign of elevated investor uncertainty.  Nonetheless, I still believe that the Market’s long term bias is to the upside and will remain so as long as investors buy into QEInfinity/Forever.

            https://thereformedbroker.com/2020/10/05/asymmetry/

 

Gold was up ½%, extending its bounce off its 100 DMA, though it is still within a short term trend of lower highs.  TLT got hammered (down 2%), making a huge gap down open joining the one created last Wednesday and finished very close to its 200 DMA (now support).  The dollar was also down big (1/2%), ending right on the developing trend of higher lows. 

 

            Judging by the dramatic moves in these indicators, it would appear the investor sentiment has shifted toward a stronger economy scenario.  Of course, this is just one day’s pin action, so follow through is needed before coming to a conclusion.  Still the media narrative of day focused (1) on fiscal stimulus before the election, (2) and after, doing a 180 on a Biden election [a massive spending programs] from being a negative to a positive.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wall-street-agrees-democratic-sweep-great-stocks

 

            Yields surge amid repricing on post-election reflation trade.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-yields-surge-amid-sharp-repricing-post-election-reflation-trades

 

            The end of the dollar’s exorbitant privilege (must read).

                https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/crash-looming-yale-senior-fellow-warns-end-dollars-exorbitant-privilege

 

                Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-gold-jump-bonds-dollar-dump-election-fears-fade

 

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were flat with the prior week---which was an improvement.

 

The August trade balance was -$67.1 billion versus estimates of -$66.1 billion.

 

The final September services PMI was reported at 54.6, in line; the   composite PMI was 54.3 versus 54.4.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/10/05/markit-services-pmi-new-business-growth-accelerates-to-fastest-since-march-2019

 

The September ISM nonmanufacturing index came in at 57.8 versus consensus of 56.9.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/10/05/ism-services-continued-growth-in-september

 

                        International

 

August German factory orders rose 4.5% versus expectations of up 2.6%; its September construction PMI was 45.5 versus 50.0.

 

                          The September UK construction PMI was 56.3 versus forecasts of 54.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on economic charts.

                          http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2020/10/top-charts.html

 

                          The depression may be over, but the recession has just begun.

                          https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/03/upshot/pandemic-economy-recession.html

 

                          Service sector weighs on EU economy.

                          https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/559ad4d179154ed181fba2569d738e6d

 

                          House plan to breakup big tech leaks.

                         https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/house-democrats-game-plan-breaking-big-tech-leaks

               

                                 Saudi Arabia sees oil at $50/barrel till 2023.

                             https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/saudi-arabia-sees-oil-50-until-2023

 

            The Fed

 

              How the Fed made the top 10% richer than ever.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/fed-study-how-we-made-top-10-richer-ever

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Both Biden and Trump ignore mounting federal debt.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/10/05/biden_and_trump_mistakenly_ignore_the_national_debt_579526.html

 

            The coronavirus

 

              The elusive ‘Covid party’ myth.

              https://www.aier.org/article/the-elusive-covid-party-myth/

 

              The coronavirus whistleblower’s mother purportedly arrested in China.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/covid-whistleblowers-mother-reportedly-arrested-china

 

            Bottom line.  Nothing matters but intervention.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nothing-matters-intervention-market-faces-multitude-binary-outcomes

 

              Here comes the ‘rate’ scare.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-here-comes-rate-scare

 

              September dividends by the numbers.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2020/10/dividends-by-numbers-for-september-2020.html#.X3s2cmhKiM9

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

            Exxon and the future of fossil fuels.

            https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/10/05/rhetoric_and_reality_with_exxon_bp_and_the_future_of_fossil_fuels_579528.html

 

What I am reading today

 

            Pointers from Portugal on addiction and the drug war.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/05/upshot/portugal-drug-legalization-treatment.html

 

 

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