The Averages (28148, 3408) pushed higher yesterday, maintaining the trend of new higher highs. But that left the two gap up opens down below---which, as you know, I believe will have to be filled. Plus, the VIX was once again up on a Market up day---a sign of elevated investor uncertainty. Nonetheless, I still believe that the Market’s long term bias is to the upside and will remain so as long as investors buy into QEInfinity/Forever.
Gold was up ½%, extending its bounce off its 100 DMA, though it is still within a short term trend of lower highs. TLT got hammered (down 2%), making a huge gap down open joining the one created last Wednesday and finished very close to its 200 DMA (now support). The dollar was also down big (1/2%), ending right on the developing trend of higher lows.
Judging by the dramatic moves in these indicators, it would appear the investor sentiment has shifted toward a stronger economy scenario. Of course, this is just one day’s pin action, so follow through is needed before coming to a conclusion. Still the media narrative of day focused (1) on fiscal stimulus before the election, (2) and after, doing a 180 on a Biden election [a massive spending programs] from being a negative to a positive.
Yields surge amid repricing on post-election reflation trade.
The end of the dollar’s exorbitant privilege (must read).
Monday in the charts.
Month to date retail chain store sales were flat with the prior week---which was an improvement.
The August trade balance was -$67.1 billion versus estimates of -$66.1 billion.
The final September services PMI was reported at 54.6, in line; the composite PMI was 54.3 versus 54.4.
The September ISM nonmanufacturing index came in at 57.8 versus consensus of 56.9.
August German factory orders rose 4.5% versus expectations of up 2.6%; its September construction PMI was 45.5 versus 50.0.
The September UK construction PMI was 56.3 versus forecasts of 54.0.
Update on economic charts.
The depression may be over, but the recession has just begun.
Service sector weighs on EU economy.
House plan to breakup big tech leaks.
Saudi Arabia sees oil at $50/barrel till 2023.
How the Fed made the top 10% richer than ever.
Both Biden and Trump ignore mounting federal debt.
The elusive ‘Covid party’ myth.
The coronavirus whistleblower’s mother purportedly arrested in China.
Bottom line. Nothing matters but intervention.
Here comes the ‘rate’ scare.
September dividends by the numbers.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Exxon and the future of fossil fuels.
What I am reading today
Pointers from Portugal on addiction and the drug war.
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