Wednesday, October 21, 2020

The Morning Call--Just because you are too young to remember a crash doesn't mean it won't happen

 

The Morning Call

 

10/21/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bitcoin-bullion-jump-dollar-bonds-dump

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 0.6% while purchase application were down 2.1%.

 

                        International

 

September UK CPI was up 0.4% versus estimates of up 0.5%; core CPI was up 0.6%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          To whom does the US Government owe money?

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2020/10/to-whom-does-us-government-owe-money.html#.X48plNBKiM8

 

                          OPEC on the brink of crisis.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/opec-brink-crisis

 

Here is a fairly balanced analysis of the economic impact of either a Trump or Biden win.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-vs-biden-economy-fed-markets

 

            The Fed

 

              What is the purpose of the Fed?---------ab—soo--lutely nothin’. Huh.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/what-purpose-fed

 

            The coronavirus

 

              More on Sweden’s success in combating the virus.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/google-mobility-data-suggests-sweden-socially-distanced-less-other-countries

 

            China

 

               The continuing battle in technology with China.

               https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/former-mi6-spy-alastair-crooke-two-undersides-geo-politics

 

 

            Bottom line.  Just because you are too young to remember a crash doesn’t mean that it won’t happen.

              https://www.marketwatch.com/story/many-stock-investors-are-too-young-to-remember-the-october-1987-market-crash-why-thats-a-problem-2020-10-19

 

            I have been in this business since 1968.  So, I have seen a wide variety of crashes: the long drawn out crash (1970’s), the one day crashes (1987), the gut wrenching 60% plus crashes (2008) along with your everyday variety of 10-20% selloffs.  As the above article points out, to assume none of these will happen again is fatally naïve.  Especially at a time when equity valuations are stretched to the upside and the economic backdrop is worrisome at the least.

 

            So, what is an investor to do.  As a contrary opinionist, my solution is to always go to the stocks that are in the tank.  Of course, they are there for a reason; but many have been beaten down more than they should.  In addition, many also pay handsome dividends that can provide attractive income during periods of Market malaise.  Among my holdings, I would point out (all ratings are from Value Line): ATT (7.7% yield, A++ rated), Altria (8.5% yield, B++ rated), AbbVie (5.9% yield, A rated), BEN (4.8% yield, A++ rated), Bank of Nova Scotia (6.4% yield, B++ rated), MSM (4.4% yield, A rated), XLE (energy sector ETF 7.2% yield).

 

            Here is more (conventional) advice on dealing with today’s richly valued Market:

 

            What high valuations mean for your retirement plan.

            https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1004634/what-highish-equity-valuations-mean-for-your-retirement-plan

 

                Where to find yield today.

            http://www.capitalspectator.com/desperately-seeking-yield-20-october-2020-edition/#more-14916

 

Here is a thought for those that do not want to assume the risk of holding individual stocks and would prefer an ETF/mutual fund.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4379755-vym-one-of-better-choices-for-passive-investor-today?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=vym-one-of-the-better-choices-for-the-passive-investor-today&utm_campaign=nl-etf-daily&utm_content=link-0

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE:MSM) declares $0.75/shar quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

Canadian National Railway (NYSE:CNI): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of C$1.38 misses by C$0.08; GAAP EPS of C$1.38 misses by C$0.06.

Revenue of C$3.41B (-11.0% Y/Y) misses by C$80M.

 

Canadian National Railway (NYSE:CNI) declares CAD 0.575/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            A great must read article on the current political scene from a liberal author.

            https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/10/understanding-left.html

 

            Yeah, this is going to help America be more competitive.

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

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