Friday, October 2, 2020

The Morning Call---It is all about the stimulus bill

 

The Morning Call

 

10/2/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

The Averages  (27816, 3380) had a roller coaster day but ended to the upside, maintaining the trend of new higher highs.   At the moment, the only short term negative is those gap up opens down below, which, as you know, I believe will have to be filled.  Longer term, I still believe that the Market’s bias is to the upside and will remain so as long as investors buy into QEInfinity/Forever.

           

Historic pre-election sentiment.

            https://thereformedbroker.com/2020/10/01/wall-street-sentiment-into-elections/

 

Gold was up, extending its bounce off its 100 DMA, though it is still within a short term trend of lower highs.  TLT recovered from Wednesday whackage, but not enough to undo Wednesday’s technical damage. The dollar declined, but remained in a developing trend of higher lows. 

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/copper-crude-crypto-credit-all-crumble-stimulus-hopes-fade

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          August construction spending rose 1.4% versus estimates of +0.8%.

 

                          The September final manufacturing PMI was 53.2 versus consensus of                                             53.5.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/10/01/markit-manufacturing-inches-up-in-september

 

The September ISM manufacturing index came in at 55.4 versus forecasts                 of 56.4

                                                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/10/01/ism-manufacturing-index-down-0-6-in-september

                                           

  September nonfarm payrolls increased by 661,000 jobs versus projections   of 850,000; the unemployment rate fell to 7.9% versus 8.2%.

                                               https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-unemployment-rate-unexpectedly-plunges-below-8-661k-jobs-added

 

                                           

                        International

 

  The August Japanese unemployment rate was 3.0%, in line;   September   consumer confidence was 32.7 versus 32.0.

                       

                          September EU flash CPI was 0.1%, in line.

 

                        Other

                       

                          August median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2020/10/median-household-income-in-august-2020.html#.X3YhXWhKiM8

 

                                                  Americans burned through savings in August.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/americans-burn-through-staggering-724bn-annualized-savings-august-stimulus-fades

                            

                          Hotel occupancy rates down 31.5% YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/10/hotels-occupancy-rate-declined-315-year.html

 

                          Why the real estate boom could last for years.

                          https://www.axios.com/real-estate-market-819e3c85-3765-4014-91c0-b545be6d5935.html

 

                          Small firm bankruptcies soar.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/small-firm-bust-accelerates-bankruptcies-soar-september

 

             The Fed

 

              Bring back Glass Steagall.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/518803-to-restore-financial-stability-bring-back-glass-steagall

 

                  Fed policy and measuring inflation.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/10/01/cpi-and-pce-two-measures-of-inflation-and-fed-policy

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Federal spending will excess $6 trillion in FY2020.

              https://www.nextgov.com/cio-briefing/2020/09/federal-government-conclude-fiscal-2020-record-spending/168884/

 

                  Hopes for a stimulus bill wane.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/house-democrats-pass-22-trillion-virus-relief-bill-crushing-hopes-compromise-stimulus

 

                Bottom line.  long term the economy will grow at a historically subpar secular rate due to the twin burdens of egregiously irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies---which, by the way, are becoming even more egregiously irresponsible as a result of measures being taken by the government and the Fed in dealing with the current crisis.’

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

           

           

                               Crows possess higher intelligence long thought primarily human.

               https://www.statnews.com/2020/09/24/crows-possess-higher-intelligence-long-thought-primarily-human/

 

              Thoughts on the pussification of American youth. 

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/smith-pussification-americas-youth-scientifically-engineered

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

 

No comments:

Post a Comment