Friday, October 2, 2020

The Morning Call---It is all about the stimulus bill


The Morning Call




The Market




The Averages  (27816, 3380) had a roller coaster day but ended to the upside, maintaining the trend of new higher highs.   At the moment, the only short term negative is those gap up opens down below, which, as you know, I believe will have to be filled.  Longer term, I still believe that the Market’s bias is to the upside and will remain so as long as investors buy into QEInfinity/Forever.


Historic pre-election sentiment.



Gold was up, extending its bounce off its 100 DMA, though it is still within a short term trend of lower highs.  TLT recovered from Wednesday whackage, but not enough to undo Wednesday’s technical damage. The dollar declined, but remained in a developing trend of higher lows. 


            Thursday in the charts.







              The Economy




                          August construction spending rose 1.4% versus estimates of +0.8%.


                          The September final manufacturing PMI was 53.2 versus consensus of                                             53.5.



The September ISM manufacturing index came in at 55.4 versus forecasts                 of 56.4



  September nonfarm payrolls increased by 661,000 jobs versus projections   of 850,000; the unemployment rate fell to 7.9% versus 8.2%.






  The August Japanese unemployment rate was 3.0%, in line;   September   consumer confidence was 32.7 versus 32.0.


                          September EU flash CPI was 0.1%, in line.




                          August median household income.



                                                  Americans burned through savings in August.



                          Hotel occupancy rates down 31.5% YoY.



                          Why the real estate boom could last for years.



                          Small firm bankruptcies soar.



             The Fed


              Bring back Glass Steagall.



                  Fed policy and measuring inflation.



            Fiscal Policy


              Federal spending will excess $6 trillion in FY2020.



                  Hopes for a stimulus bill wane.



                Bottom line.  long term the economy will grow at a historically subpar secular rate due to the twin burdens of egregiously irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies---which, by the way, are becoming even more egregiously irresponsible as a result of measures being taken by the government and the Fed in dealing with the current crisis.’



    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios



What I am reading today



                               Crows possess higher intelligence long thought primarily human.



              Thoughts on the pussification of American youth. 



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