Will the election be Y2K 2.0?
Gold and the Golden Constant.
Everyone is back in the pool.
Monday in the charts.
September CPI came in at +0.2%, in line; core CPI was also 0.2%, also in line.
August UK unemployment was 4.5% versus predictions of 4.3%; average earnings were flat versus -0.6%; Q2 labor productivity was -2.0% versus -2.5%
The September Chinese trade balance was $37 billion versus estimates of $58 billion,
September German CPI was -0.2%, in line; October economic sentiment was 56.1 versus forecasts of 73.0.
October EU economic sentiment was 52.3 versus expectations of 60.0.
Update on seven high frequency indicators.
The tale of two economies.
Compare and contrast with the above article.
More debt is not the answer.
Latest US stats.
Johnson and Johnson halts vaccine trial.
Where is the compassion?
Bottom line. As you know, the primary thesis of my long term secular economic growth forecast (and hence, the E in P/E) is that more government debt and more QEInfinity/Forever inhibit rather than stimulate future economic growth. This article from Lance Roberts provides the statistical backup for this thesis.
‘The “COVID-19″ crisis led to a debt surge to new highs. Such will result in a retardation of economic growth to 1.5% or less, as recently. Simultaneously, the stock market may rise due to massive Fed liquidity, but only the 10% of the population owning 88% of the market benefits. In the future, the economic bifurcation will deepen to the point where 5% of the population owns virtually all of it.
For the bulls: four exaggerated concerns.
Q 3 earnings preview.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
BlackRock : Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $9.22 beats by $1.46; GAAP EPS of $8.87 beats by $1.07.
Johnson & Johnson : Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.20 beats by $0.22; GAAP EPS of $1.33 misses by $0.37.
Fastenal : Q3 GAAP EPS of $0.38 beats by $0.01.
Fastenal declares $0.35/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
Williams-Sonoma declares $0.53/share quarterly dividend, 10.4% increase from prior dividend of $0.48.
What I am reading today
None of the above.
Making friends with discomfort.
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