The Morning Call--An improving economy?

The Morning Call

 

10/1/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

The Averages  (27781, 3363) rebounded yesterday, making new higher highs, though they closed well off their intraday high.  However, volume was up, breadth improved and the VIX was up (unusual for an up Market day).  At the moment, the only short term negative is those gap up opens down below, which, as you know, I believe will have to be filled.  Longer term, I still believe that the Market’s bias is to the upside and will remain so as long as investors buy into QEInfinity/Forever.

           

Gold was down but remains strong long term while experiencing short term weakness.  TLT was hammered down 1%, ending below its 100 DMA (now resistance) and breaking its trend of higher lows. The dollar was unchanged, remaining in a developing trend of higher lows.  The pin action of all these indicators along with stocks came into sync hinting at an improving economy.

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-suffer-worst-september-2011-dollar-election-doubt-soars

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly jobless claims rose 837,000 versus expectations of 850,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/over-830000-americans-filed-first-time-jobless-benefits-last-week

 

August personal income fell 2.7% versus projections of -2.4%; personal spending rose 1.0% versus +0.8%; the PCE price index was +0.3% versus +0.2%; core PCE index was +0.3%, in line.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-personal-income-tumbles-august-savings-rate-plunges

 

                          August pending home sales rose 8.8% versus consensus of +3.4%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/09/30/pending-home-sales-at-record-high-in-august

 

                          The September Chicago PMI came in at 62.4 versus forecasts of 52.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/09/30/chicago-pmi-surges-in-september

 

                        International

 

August EU unemployment  was 8.1%, in line; August PPI was +0.1%, also in line; the September final manufacturing PMI was 53.7, also in line.

 

The September final German manufacturing PMI was 56.4 versus estimates of 56.6.

 

The September final Japanese manufacturing PMI was 47.7 versus projections of 47.3; the Q3 large manufacturers index was -27 versus -23; the small manufacturers index was -44 versus -38; the large nonmanufacturers index was -12 versus -9; the all industry cap ex was up 1.4% versus +1.3%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Retail on course for most bankruptcies and store closures in a single year.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-pace-most-bankruptcies-and-store-closures-ever-one-year-bdo

 

                                  In latest Brexit news, EU files suit against UK.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-launches-legal-proceedings-over-uk-intermarket-bill-brexit-talks-enter-final-round

 

            The Fed

 

              ECB is considering employing the Fed’s new ‘average inflation’ policy.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-30/ecb-to-consider-allowing-inflation-to-overshoot-lagarde-says?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

Fed extends limits on bank stock buybacks and dividends.  See they can so   something right.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-extends-limits-buybacks-dividends-until-end-2020-brainard-dissents

 

            The coronavirus

 

              Overnight update.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/who-begs-billions-support-global-covid-19-vaccinations-israel-sees-another-daily

 

            China

 

              The July US balance of trade with China got worse.

              http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/09/the-july-trade-release

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Uncovering the mysteries of America’s first English colony.

            https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2018/06/lost-colony-roanoke-history-theories-croatoan/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::add=SpecialEdition_Escape_20200923&rid=7912D7310BBCEE9B958D4BEDCFEC5AE5

 

 

                        Another life lesson from Traderfeed.

            http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2020/09/why-youre-having-trouble-getting-to.html

 

                        Getting a social security ‘do over’.

            https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/09/29/social-security-took-checks-early-because-covid-you-get-do-over/3567304001/

 

                        US funds foreign protests.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/congressional-hearing-reveals-us-govts-invisible-hand-protests-around-world

 

Reader alert.  This is a political statement---read at your own risk.  This is a perfect example of what is wrong with this country.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/political/university-sets-support-spaces-students-traumatized-presidential-debate

 

 

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