Thursday, October 1, 2020

The Morning Call--An improving economy?

The Morning Call




The Market




The Averages  (27781, 3363) rebounded yesterday, making new higher highs, though they closed well off their intraday high.  However, volume was up, breadth improved and the VIX was up (unusual for an up Market day).  At the moment, the only short term negative is those gap up opens down below, which, as you know, I believe will have to be filled.  Longer term, I still believe that the Market’s bias is to the upside and will remain so as long as investors buy into QEInfinity/Forever.


Gold was down but remains strong long term while experiencing short term weakness.  TLT was hammered down 1%, ending below its 100 DMA (now resistance) and breaking its trend of higher lows. The dollar was unchanged, remaining in a developing trend of higher lows.  The pin action of all these indicators along with stocks came into sync hinting at an improving economy.


            Wednesday in the charts.







              The Economy




                          Weekly jobless claims rose 837,000 versus expectations of 850,000.



August personal income fell 2.7% versus projections of -2.4%; personal spending rose 1.0% versus +0.8%; the PCE price index was +0.3% versus +0.2%; core PCE index was +0.3%, in line.



                          August pending home sales rose 8.8% versus consensus of +3.4%.



                          The September Chicago PMI came in at 62.4 versus forecasts of 52.0.





August EU unemployment  was 8.1%, in line; August PPI was +0.1%, also in line; the September final manufacturing PMI was 53.7, also in line.


The September final German manufacturing PMI was 56.4 versus estimates of 56.6.


The September final Japanese manufacturing PMI was 47.7 versus projections of 47.3; the Q3 large manufacturers index was -27 versus -23; the small manufacturers index was -44 versus -38; the large nonmanufacturers index was -12 versus -9; the all industry cap ex was up 1.4% versus +1.3%.




                          Retail on course for most bankruptcies and store closures in a single year.



                                  In latest Brexit news, EU files suit against UK.



            The Fed


              ECB is considering employing the Fed’s new ‘average inflation’ policy.



Fed extends limits on bank stock buybacks and dividends.  See they can so   something right.



            The coronavirus


              Overnight update.





              The July US balance of trade with China got worse.




    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios




What I am reading today


            Uncovering the mysteries of America’s first English colony.




                        Another life lesson from Traderfeed.



                        Getting a social security ‘do over’.



                        US funds foreign protests.



Reader alert.  This is a political statement---read at your own risk.  This is a perfect example of what is wrong with this country.




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