The Morning Call
8/13/20
The
Market
Technical
The Averages (27976, 3380) recovered Tuesday’s losses
yesterday, though the negative factors that I have been listing over the last
week are still operative: (1) both of the indices made two gap up opens last
week that need to be filled, (2) the VIX continues to reflect investor concern
and (3) breadth remains in overbought territory. So, some downside seems probable although it
may not occur until the Averages (or, at least, the S&P) challenge their
all-time highs (29568/3393).
Nonetheless, I am sticking with my assumption that the Market’s bias
remains to the upside long term.
https://sentimentrader.com/blog/a-tale-of-two-sps/
Gold and the long
bond were down again though only fractionally.
GLD’s chart remains strong plus it has that huge gap down open to
close. On the other hand, TLT ended
right on its 100 DMA---the first sign of technical weakness. The pin action of these two indicators is
likely being impacted by their dramatically overbought condition. The dollar was also down but not enough to
close last week’s big gap up open.
Gold---the unloved
hedge.
https://contrarianedge.com/beloved-country-unloved-hedge/
The case against
owning gold.
Mohamed El Erian
on the dollar (weakness).
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mega-cap-tech-stocks-soar-again-reflation-rotation-ends-abruptly
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly jobless claims fell 19% versus
expectations of a 6% decline.
July import prices
rose 0.7% versus forecasts of up 0.6%; export prices were up 0.8% versus 0.4%.
The July budget deficit was $63 billion versus
estimates of $193 billion.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/budget-deficit-hits-record-us-spends-100-more-it-collects-ytd
International
July Japanese PPI was +0.6% versus consensus
of +0.3%.
July German CPI was -0.5%, in line.
Other
Teetering on the precipice.
http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/08/teetering-on-the-precipice-still
How strong will the Q3 economic rebound be?
http://www.capitalspectator.com/will-the-us-economic-rebound-falter-in-2020s-second-half/
A sign that the recovery could be stalling.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bourbon-street-country-clubs-signs-recovery-stalling
The
coronavirus
***overnight update.
The coronavirus wave in sunbelt states crests
and begins to recede.
China
Has China’s central bank launched its own QE?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinas-central-bank-has-quietly-launched-its-own-qe
Chinese state run banks complying with US Hong
Kong sanctions.
Bottom
line. Soros: ‘we are caught in a bubble fueled by
Fed liquidity’.
Interview with Eugene Fama, developer of the
Efficient Market Theory.
https://themarket.ch/english/inflation-is-totally-out-of-the-control-of-central-banks-ld.2476
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
UPS (NYSE:UPS) declares
$1.01/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
The
predator that makes great white sharks flee.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/04/great-white-sharks-flee-killer-whales/587563/
How to watch tonight Perseid meteor
shower.
https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/the-sky-is-falling-heres-how-to-watch-tonights-perseid-meteor-shower
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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