Tuesday, August 25, 2020

The Morning Call---No easy way out

 

The Morning Call

 

8/25/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

The Averages  (28308, 3431)  had a great day, with the S&P blasting through its former all-time high (the Dow not).  That is a big plus.  However, (1) volume was weak, (2) both of the indices made a gap up open, joining those two gap up opens made three weeks ago, (3) the VIX was down only fractionally on strong up day in the Averages, continuing to reflect investor concern and (4) breadth remains in overbought territory [note: this overbought condition exists only in the indices.  As you can see in the articles below, breadth in the rest of the Market is awful.  This dichotomy makes the technical picture even worse.]  Nonetheless, I am sticking with my assumption that the Market’s bias remains to the upside long term.

 

                        More on negative breadth.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/

 

            Even more.

            http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2020/08/a-different-look-at-markets-weak-breadth.html

 

            Investors versus the newsletters.

            https://sentimentrader.com/blog/mom-pop-sell-while-newsletters-tell-them-to-buy--24-8-2020/

 

Gold and the long bond were down again though only fractionally.  GLD’s chart remains strong---it remains in the uptrend off its June low.  TLT ended above its 100 DMA (now resistance) for a second day (if it remains there through the close today, it will revert to support).  The dollar was up but has made a lower high---a negative.   

           

            Gold still shines.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/08/24/gold-still-shines-bright

 

            Conflicting Treasury market signals.

            http://www.capitalspectator.com/conflicting-treasury-market-signals-keep-investors-guessing/

 

            US Treasury over dependent on short term maturities.

            https://global-macro-monitor.com/2020/08/22/black-swan-hunting/

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/aaplocalypse-now-nasdaq-sp-hit-record-highs-bonds-bullion-slide

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Month to date retail chain store sales growth was much improved from the prior week.

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Eight high frequency economic indicators.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/08/eight-high-frequency-indicators-for_24.html

 

                          Lower investment/production has nothing to do with a dollar shortage.

 https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2020/08/23/dismiss-the-federal-reserve-alarmism-theres-no-such-thing-as-  dollar-shortages/#7d3fea657fdc

                       

                          No ‘V’ for thee.

                          http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/08/no-v-for-thee

 

                          Global companies raise record amount of funds in August.

  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-markets-global-fundraising/global-companies-raise-most-funds-for-the-month-of-august-in-a-decade-idUSKBN25K15H

                              

                          Mortgage delinquencies hit decade high,.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mortgage-delinquencies-plus-90-days-due-hits-decade-high

 

            The coronavirus

 

              Hong Kong has first documented case of coronavirus reinfection.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hong-kong-confirms-first-case-covid-19-reinfection-anywhere-world

 

              Sweden’s coronavirus strategy hints at herd immunity.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/swedens-covid-19-measures-hint-herd-immunity-us-experts-rethink-lockdown-strategies

 

            The Fed

 

              Powell to introduce revised Fed policy on inflation.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/previewing-powells-j-hole-jawbone-buy-gold-case-it-all-goes-wrong

 

            China

 

              US/China trade talks back on.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-sees-progress-after-call-china-discussing-phase-1-deal-yuan-jumps

 

            Bottom line.  No easy way out.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-getting-worse-every-shock-bofa-turns-apocalyptic-coming-end-game

 

              Where to invest for income.

              https://www.morningstar.com/articles/998976/where-to-invest-for-income

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Medtronic (NYSE:MDT): FQ1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.62 beats by $0.44; GAAP EPS of $0.36 beats by $0.62.

Revenue of $6.51B (-13.1% Y/Y) beats by $1.03B.

 

Hormel Foods (NYSE:HRL): FQ3 GAAP EPS of $0.37 beats by $0.02.

Revenue of $2.38B (+3.9% Y/Y) in-line.

 

Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS): FQ3 Non-GAAP EPS of C$1.04 misses by C$0.07; GAAP EPS of C$1.04 in-line.

Revenue of C$7.73B (+0.9% Y/Y) misses by $210M.

 

Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS) declares CAD 0.90/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            The 4% rule is dead.  What should retirees do now?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/4-rule-dead-what-should-retirees-do-now

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

No comments:

Post a Comment