Friday, August 7, 2020

The Morning Call--When the real money runs out

The Morning Call

 

8/7/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

The Averages  (27386, 3344) continued their move up.  But (1) the Dow still hasn’t surpassed its June high, (2) both of the indices have made two gap up opens this week, (3) the VIX continues confirm the directional move of stock prices but not their magnitude, and (4) breadth is in overbought territory.  All in all, this pin action is not indicative of a solid trending Market, just a strong S&P.  Nonetheless, I am sticking with my assumption that the Market’s bias remains to the upside.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/filling-gaps

 

Gold was up another 1 3/8%, finishing above the upper boundary of its long term trading range for a third day (if it remains there through the close today, it will reset to an uptrend).  The long bond reversed itself yet again, putting it back above the uptrend off its June low but still below its March and April high closes.  It continues to vacillate at this key level.  Follow through. The dollar was unchanged, remaining below the lower boundary of its short term downtrend.  UUP and GLD continue to point to a weak economy but TLT could potentially be a leading indicator calling that scenario into question.

            http://www.capitalspectator.com/pondering-lower-real-yields-and-higher-inflation-forecasts/

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/endless-melt-gold-soars-global-stocks-turn-green-2020-apple-2-trillion-any-second

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

July nonfarm payrolls increased by 1,763,000 versus expectations of +1,600,000; the unemployment rate was 10.2% versus 10.5%

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-was-right-big-payroll-number-smashes-expectations-176-million-jobs-added

 

                        International

 

June Japanese household spending rose 13% versus consensus of +7.5%; June leading economic indicators came in at 85 versus 81.

 

The June German trade balance was E14.5 billion versus estimates of E10.5 billion.

 

The July Chinese trade balance was $62.3 billion versus forecasts of $42.0 billion.

 

                        Other

 

                          Household debt decreased in Q2.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/08/ny-fed-q2-report-total-household-debt.html

 

                          Global economy shows signs of recovery in July.

                          https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b9a1f47a1c714124a1b412da6b637e75

 

            The coronavirus

 

              ***overnight update.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/spains-virus-cases-surge-lockdown-imposed-investors-derisk-stocks

 

              America is headed for an unprecedented wave of evictions.

              https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/rent-evictions-homelessness/

 

              Second wave of layoffs are underway.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/new-survey-confirms-second-wave-us-layoffs-well-under-way

 

            Monetary Policy

 

Bank of England leaves rates unchanged but voted against expanding its bond buying program.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/bank-of-england-holds-rates-steady-and-maintains-bond-buying-levels.html

 

            China

 

              Trump bans use of TikTok and WeChat.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-signs-executive-order-banning-tiktok-wechat

 

              US and China to ‘review’ results to date of Phase one deal next week.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/uschina-phase-one-agreement-good-luck-compliance-review

 

              China helping the Saudi’s build nuclear capability.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-helped-saudis-build-secret-nuclear-site-extracting-yellowcake-wsj

 

              China/Russia ‘dedollarization’ reaches break though moment.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/russia-china-dedollarization-reaches-breakthrough-moment-countries-ditch-greenback

 

            Bottom line.  When the real money runs out.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabo-everything-can-appear-hunky-doryuntil-real-money-runs-out

 

              More for the optimists.

              https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-will-be-flying-high-in-a-year-for-2-simple-reasons-2020-08-05?mod=home-page

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

C.H. Robinson Worldwide (NASDAQ:CHRW) declares $0.51/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

Nike (NYSE:NKE) declares $0.245/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2020/08/quotation-of-the-day-3242.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CafeHayek+%28Cafe+Hayek%29

 

 

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