The Morning Call
8/12/20
The
Market
Technical
The Averages (27696, 3333) gave investors a roller coaster
ride yesterday, opening quite strong but selling off at the close. It is likely that the negative factors that I
have been listing over the last week exercised some effect on the results: (1) both
of the indices made two gap up opens last week that need to be filled [neither
was filled], (2) the VIX continues to reflect investor concern [yesterday, it
was back above its March/April low] and (3) while breadth deteriorated, it
remains in overbought territory. So, further
downside seems probable. Nonetheless, I
am sticking with my assumption that the Market’s bias remains to the upside
long term.
https://quantifiableedges.com/looking-at-7-day-win-streaks/
Stocks becoming
less volatile.
https://sentimentrader.com/blog/stocks-are-finally-becoming-less-volatile/
Gold and the long
bond got hammered on huge volume. Like
equities, they were both overbought. So,
again a selloff was not surprising.
Their charts remain very strong and both made major gap down opens which
need to be filled. The dollar was the
calm one of the group, rising only fractionally, likely being held back by last
week’s big gap up open.
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-big-tech-battered-reflation-quant-quake-continues
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications were up 6.8% while purchase applications grew 2%.
July CPI was up
0.6% versus expectations of +0.3%; core CPI was up 0.6% versus +0.2%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-consumer-prices-surge-food-medical-costs-jump
International
Q2 UK GDP fell
20.% versus consensus of -20.5%, business investment declined 31.4% versus
-2.5%, construction orders were -4.5% versus -6.2%; the June trade balance was
L5.3 billion versus L2.8 billion, industrial production was up 9.3%, in line
while manufacturing production was up 11% versus +10%.
June EU industrial production was up 9.1%
versus estimates of up 10.0%.
July Japanese YoY
machine tool orders dropped 31.1% versus forecasts of -27.0%.
Other
The double dip
cometh? (don’t let the author’s comment
on Trump prevent you from getting the bigger picture).
http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/08/the-double-dip-cometh
Mortgage delinquencies beginning to climb.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/08/corelogic-overall-mortgage-delinquency.html
The
coronavirus
***overnight update.
College football’s coronavirus crisis.
https://www.vox.com/2020/8/10/21355857/college-football-coronavirus-explained
The Kodak loan---what were these guys thinking
about?
https://www.epsilontheory.com/get-me-tools-and-a-beer/
The
Fed
More QEInfinity/Forever will not solve the
problem.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/throwing-printed-money-problem-wont-make-it-go-away
Bottom
line. Higher debt = lower growth
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beware-era-debtstolation
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Every
goal needs a vision.
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2020/08/avoiding-burnout-every-goal-needs-vision.html
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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