Wednesday, August 12, 2020

The Morning Call--More debt = slower growth

 

The Morning Call

 

8/12/20

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

The Averages  (27696, 3333) gave investors a roller coaster ride yesterday, opening quite strong but selling off at the close.  It is likely that the negative factors that I have been listing over the last week exercised some effect on the results: (1) both of the indices made two gap up opens last week that need to be filled [neither was filled], (2) the VIX continues to reflect investor concern [yesterday, it was back above its March/April low] and (3) while breadth deteriorated, it remains in overbought territory.  So, further downside seems probable.  Nonetheless, I am sticking with my assumption that the Market’s bias remains to the upside long term.

                        https://quantifiableedges.com/looking-at-7-day-win-streaks/

 

            Stocks becoming less volatile.

            https://sentimentrader.com/blog/stocks-are-finally-becoming-less-volatile/

 

Gold and the long bond got hammered on huge volume.  Like equities, they were both overbought.  So, again a selloff was not surprising.  Their charts remain very strong and both made major gap down opens which need to be filled.  The dollar was the calm one of the group, rising only fractionally, likely being held back by last week’s big gap up open.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-gold-bitcoin-surge-just-starting-real-yields-will-be-negative-until-financial-system

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-big-tech-battered-reflation-quant-quake-continues

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 6.8% while purchase applications grew 2%.

 

July CPI was up 0.6% versus expectations of +0.3%; core CPI was up 0.6% versus +0.2%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-consumer-prices-surge-food-medical-costs-jump

 

 

                        International

 

Q2 UK GDP fell 20.% versus consensus of -20.5%, business investment declined 31.4% versus -2.5%, construction orders were -4.5% versus -6.2%; the June trade balance was L5.3 billion versus L2.8 billion, industrial production was up 9.3%, in line while manufacturing production was up 11% versus +10%.

 

                          June EU industrial production was up 9.1% versus estimates of up 10.0%.

 

July Japanese YoY machine tool orders dropped 31.1% versus forecasts of -27.0%.

 

                        Other

 

The double dip cometh?  (don’t let the author’s comment on Trump prevent you from getting the bigger picture).

                          http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/08/the-double-dip-cometh

 

                          Mortgage delinquencies beginning to climb.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/08/corelogic-overall-mortgage-delinquency.html

 

            The coronavirus

 

              ***overnight update.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/philippines-brazil-interested-russian-covid-19-vaccine-australia-suffers-deadliest-day                       

 

              College football’s coronavirus crisis.

              https://www.vox.com/2020/8/10/21355857/college-football-coronavirus-explained

 

              The Kodak loan---what were these guys thinking about?

              https://www.epsilontheory.com/get-me-tools-and-a-beer/

 

            The Fed

 

              More QEInfinity/Forever will not solve the problem.

               https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/throwing-printed-money-problem-wont-make-it-go-away

 

            Bottom line.  Higher debt = lower growth

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beware-era-debtstolation

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Every goal needs a vision.

            http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2020/08/avoiding-burnout-every-goal-needs-vision.html

           

 

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