Tuesday, October 22, 2019

The Morning Call--Earnings reports top the headlines

The Morning Call


The Market

The Averages (26877, 3006) posted gains yesterday but on lower volume (what’s new?) and mixed breadth.  The VIX was down 1 ¾%, but its pin action still holds little informational value.  The indices ended solidly above both MA’s and in uptrends across all timeframes.  Two other somewhat worrisome details are (1) they still remain below their prior lower high [though the S&P just barely] and (2) short term, the October 11th gap up opens need to be closed.  My assumption remains that momentum is to the upside and that the all-time highs (27398, 3027) will be challenged; however, if the Averages can’t close above that prior lower high, my conviction will weaken. 

            Gold was down ½%, ending slightly below the boundary set by the 9/10 low but above the trend of rising higher lows.

TLT was off ¾% and is again approaching a challenge of its 100 DMA; but it finished in uptrends across all time frames. 

Morgan Stanley sees major cracks in the leveraged credit market.

The dollar was up fractionally, managing to close on its 100 DMA (posing a threat to the upside momentum) but above the lower boundary of its short term uptrend.  Since we now know the source of the recent weakness in spite of a dollar shortage (BOJ shrinking its balance sheet), the question is how long will this trend continue?   I don’t have the answer.

Monday in the charts.



            No US economic data releases yesterday.

            Overseas, the August Japanese all industry index and September German PPI were better than anticipated while the September Japanese trade balance was terrible.
            IMF forecasts slower economic growth in China.

            Global economic seen in Japan and South Korea export slump.

            Most of yesterday’s news flow was focused on individual corporate earnings reports.  However, there were headlines on macroeconomic issues that have Market impacts:

(1)   China:

So far, China has bought zero soybeans from US.

                 If there is a trade deal, will the global economy improve?

(2)   Brexit.  This situation is so fluid that last night’s news is outdated.  Here is the morning brief.

(3)   Turkey/Syria/the Kurds.

Bottom line:  the economy continues to struggle.  But the Fed is back expanding its balance sheet---whatever label you want to put on it.  While there have been some signs that the Fed/Market co-dependency may be weakening, until there is stronger evidence that is occurring, I have to assume that the linkage remains.  Meaning stock prices will continue to advance.    However, given the current extremely generous valuations, I think that it makes sense to build cash reserves by selling a portion of any of my holdings when, as and if its price trades into its Sell Half Range.

            CEO confidence plunges.

            Avoid complexity in limiting risk.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Sherwin Williams (NYSE:SHW): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $6.65 beats by $0.15; GAAP EPS of $6.16 misses by $0.05.
Revenue of $4.87B (+3.0% Y/Y) beats by $40M.

United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.07 beats by $0.01; GAAP EPS of $2.01 misses by $0.06.
Revenue of $18.32B (+5.0% Y/Y) misses by $30M.

Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.37 beats by $0.13; GAAP EPS of $1.36 beats by $0.12.
Revenue of $17.8B (+6.7% Y/Y) beats by $370M.

McDonald's (NYSE:MCD): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.11 misses by $0.10; GAAP EPS of $2.11 misses by $0.11.
Revenue of $5.43B (+1.1% Y/Y) misses by $40M.


   This Week’s Data



            The August Japanese all industry index came in at 0.0 versus estimates of -0.1%; the September trade balance was -Y123 billion versus +Y54 billion.

            September German PPI was +0.1% versus forecasts of -0.1%.

            October UK industrial orders index was reported at -37 versus consensus of -28; Q4 business optimism index was -44 versus -38.


What I am reading today

            Money can buy some happiness; health buys more.

            The role of luck in determining wealth.

            This could help your retirement savings last longer.
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