Wednesday, October 30, 2019

The Morning Call--It's Fed day

The Morning Call


The Market
The Averages (27071, 3036) rested yesterday; but nothing changed will respect the pin action in each index, i.e. the S&P is above its former all-time high and the Dow is still out of sync with the S&P.  Volume and breadth were weaker.  The VIX was up 5/8 %, but it is still below its 7/25 low (while the S&P remains above its 7/25 high).

The indices still ended solidly above both MA’s and in uptrends across all timeframes.    My assumption remains that momentum is to the upside and that the Dow will challenge its all-time highs (27398).  But there remain some negatives:  (1) the Dow is now out of sync with the S&P, (2) October 11th gap up opens need to be closed and (3) the S&P created a second gap that needs to be filled.

TLT declined nine cents, ending below its 100 DMA for a second day (now support; if it remains there through the close today, it will revert to resistance).  While it finished above its 200 DMA and  in uptrends across all time frames, it is clearly threatening the loss of momentum. 

The dollar was down one cent, but that doesn’t negate the regaining of its upside push.
            The liquidity problem is easing but not for the right reasons.

Gold was down ¼ %, ending below the lower boundary of that pennant formation. Any follow through would point more downside.

            Tuesday in the charts.



Yesterday’s economic stats were mixed but weighed to the negative: September pending home sales were better than anticipated; month to date retail chain store sales were unchanged; the August Case Shiller home price index, September existing home sales and October consumer confidence were below estimates.

Overseas, September UK consumer credit loans and October Japanese CPI were less than projections.

            Two headlines worth noting:

(1)   US trade officials are hedging on US/China trade pact. 

In addition, the Chinese are not happy with Trump’s ban on Chinese 5G equipment,

I believe still that China has no incentive to make a deal before November 2020; unless Trump folds.
(2)   the media wasted a lot of time hashing over the actions/language that will come out of today’s FOMC meeting.  I believe that the Fed’s primarily concern is not inflation, not unemployment but the Market.  As long as that is so, monetary policy will remain accommodative.

The BOJ leads the way.  It is now starting to lend ETF shares to prevent a Market freeze up.

Bottom line: there is still a lot of good news out there: a better than expected earnings season, an easy Fed, Brexit out of the headline.  Plus, we are moving into the season the historically has been the most positive on the calendar.  On the other hand, the economic numbers remain bad and now the odds of a US/China trade deal maybe falling.  That’s a lot for investors to juggle and the Market pin action reflects that. 

Still, as I noted above, I think that stock prices are going higher.  But I view this another opportunity to take a portion of my profits in stocks that are overextended.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
C.H. Robinson Worldwide (NASDAQ:CHRW): Q3 GAAP EPS of $1.07 misses by $0.07.
Revenue of $3.86B (-10.0% Y/Y) misses by $60M.

Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.34 beats by $0.01; GAAP EPS of $1.34 beats by $0.04.
Revenue of $3.5B (+5.7% Y/Y) misses by $20M.


   This Week’s Data


            September existing home sales fell 2.1% versus expectations of down 1.0%

            September pending home sales rose 1.5% versus estimates of up 0.9%.

            October consumer confidence came in at 125.9 versus consensus of 128.0

                Weekly mortgage applications rose 0.6% while purchase applications were up 2.3%.

                The October ADP private payroll report showed job gains of 125,000 versus projections of 120,000.

            Advance Q3 GDP growth reading was +1.9% versus forecasts of +1.6%; the price indicator was +1.6 versus +1.9; the PCE price index was +1.5% versus +2.0% while the core PCE was +2.2% versus +2.1%


            September Japanese retail sales grew 7.1% versus expectations of -0.2%.  This surprising result is at least partially due to consumer buying in advance of a sales tax hike.

            September German unemployment came in at 3.1%, in line.

            October EU business confidence was reported at -.19 versus estimates of -.24; consumer confidence was -9.8 versus -8.9; economic sentiment was 100.8 versus 101.1; industrial sentiment was -9.5 versus -8.9; services sentiment was 9.0 versus 9.3.


What I am reading today
Different kinds of stupid

            How long will $1 million last in retirement?

            Another good statistical study on wealth inequality in the US.

            Why investors are so prone to speculate.

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