Tuesday, October 29, 2019

The Morning Call--Is all this good news priced in?

The Morning Call


The Market

The Averages (27090, 3039) had another good day.  As I noted previously, the S&P reset its very short term uptrend (the Dow still hasn’t) and pushed through its prior lower high (the Dow still hasn’t); further, it ended the day above its all-time high (the Dow didn’t; if it finishes there at the close today, the break will be confirmed).  Volume and breadth improved.  The VIX actually rallied 3 5/8 %, very unusual on a strong up day in stocks---bouncing away from its 7/25 low as the S&P pushed above its 7/25 high.

The indices still ended solidly above both MA’s and in uptrends across all timeframes.  Plus, as I noted, the S&P closed above its all-time high---which is clearly an added positive.  On the other hand, there are some negatives (1) the Dow is now out of sync with the S&P, (2) the VIX advanced on a strong up day, (3) October 11th gap up opens need to be closed and (4) the S&P gapped up on its open, creating a second gap that needs to be filled.  My assumption remains that momentum is to the upside and that the Dow will challenge its all-time highs (27398) will be challenged; but the aforementioned short term negatives may require some backing and filling before achieving any sustained move to the upside.

            Update on margin debt.

TLT declined 1%, ending below its 100 DMA (now support; if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to resistance).  While it finished above its 200 DMA and  in uptrends across all time frames, it is clearly threatening the loss of momentum. 

The dollar was down two cents, but that doesn’t negate the regaining of its upside push.

Gold was down 7/8 %, reversing back below the upper boundary its pennant formation and voiding my conclusion on Friday that it has made a short term bottom and its price is headed higher.  It closed right at the tip of that pennant formation; so, we should get some directional information today.

            Monday in the charts.



The numbers yesterday continued the trend of negative releases: the September Chicago Fed national activity index, September wholesale inventories and the October Dallas Fed manufacturing index were disappointing while the September trade deficit was smaller than expected.

            Overseas, September EU loan growth and September Chinese industrial profits were below estimates.

            This week will be an eventful one.  Here are the major headlines:

(1)     this will be the busiest week of this earnings season.  To date, it is coming in better than expected,

(2)     a number of key economic datapoints will be released including the payrolls number, Q3 GDP and the October PMI’s,

(3)     the FOMC meets today and tomorrow.  Expectations are high for another 25 basis point rate cut though opinion is divided on what happens next.  The Market has likely priced in the cut; so, if there is a surprise, it will because the [a] Fed cut rates by 50 basis points or [b] it doesn’t cut rates at all.

      And still more.

***overnight, Johnson wins Labor backing for a December election.

Bottom line: over the weekend, we got good news on Brexit (EU delays deadline) and more happy talk on US/China trade.  Couple that with a better than expected earnings season and almost assured rate cut and the only fundamental negative is the economic dataflow.  So, it is not surprising that investors would be feeling jiggy.  Offsetting that is that stocks are very overvalued, i.e. lots of good news is already priced into many sectors of the Market.  I am using that strength to take a portion of my profits in stocks that are overextended.

            Here are some interesting stats on how Markets perform before and during recessions.

            The pain trade: JP Morgan versus Morgan Stanley.

            Shiller: I see bubbles everywhere.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW) declares $1.07/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Cummins (NYSE:CMI): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.83 misses by $0.01; GAAP EPS of $3.97 beats by $0.14.
Revenue of $5.77B (-2.9% Y/Y) misses by $100M.

Mastercard (NYSE:MA): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.15 beats by $0.14; GAAP EPS of $2.07 beats by $0.06.
Revenue of $4.45B (+14.1% Y/Y) beats by $40M.


   This Week’s Data


            Month to date retail chain store sales were the same as the prior week.

            The August Case Shiller home price index was unchanged versus projections of +0.3%.

            The October Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at -5.1 versus estimates of +1.4.


            September UK consumer credit loans fell 14.5% versus forecasts of a 7.1% decline.

            October Japanese CPI was reported at 0.4% versus consensus of 0.5%; core CPI was 0.5% versus 0.7%.


            China voices support for blockchain.
The allure and limits of monetized fiscal deficits.

            Decades of deficits have add instability to the economic environment.

What I am reading today

            Quote of the day.

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