The Morning Call
10/7/19
The
Market
Technical
The S&P had a
turbulent week. It closed the 9/4 gap up
open. But in the process created a gap
down open and broke below its 100 DMA.
On Friday, it reversed that action, filling the gap down open and
voiding the challenge of its 100 DMA.
Clearly, that is a plus for the upside momentum thesis. The key now is there enough strength to push
it above the 7/26 and 9/12 highs?
As you can see,
the long bond maintains its strong, steady recovery from the 9/4 sell off. So, the bond boys are thinking that rates
will continue to fall, suggesting an easier Fed and weaker economy.
Money market funds
seeing huge inflows.
The dollar
remained calmed through last week’s Market volatility, finishing in a solid uptrend. The fact that gold continues to recovery in
the face of this strength suggests both are acting like safety trades.
The problems in the repo market are just the tip
of the iceberg.
GLD recovered from
the dramatic sell off in the prior week, returning to the range defined on the
upside by a declining trend of lower highs and on the downside by a boundary
defined by the early September lows.
This is not a particularly positive formation. So, risk remains to the downside. Gold needs to push through the upper boundary
of the current pattern for the chart to become more upbeat.
While the VIX was
down 10 7/8 % on Friday, it still ended above both MA’s and in a very short
term uptrend. That is not an encouraging
sign for stocks.
Fundamental
Headlines
ECB critics on QE;
how far behind is the US?
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
International
August
Japanese leading economic indicators came in at 91.7 versus consensus of 94.0.
August
German factory orders fell 0.6% versus estimates of -0.3%.
Other
Class
8 heavy duty truck orders collapse.
Brexit
update.
What
I am reading today
US to withdraw from
Syria.
Looks like the heat wave is ending.
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment