Monday, April 15, 2019

Monday Morning Chartology


The Morning Call

4/15/19

The Market
         
    Technical

            The S&P (2907) continues on a roll and is clearly within striking distance of its all-time high (2942).  However, on Friday, it opened a second gap up and now has two to close---which is going to create a drag on momentum (I know, I said that before and it hasn’t happened.  However, notice those earlier gaps in UUP, TLT and GLD have all been closed.)



            The long bond has clearly lost some upside momentum in the last two weeks; though in the process, it managed to close the big gap open of four Friday’s ago---which I have repeated said needed to be done.  Its chart is still strong with TLT above both MA’s and in a very short term uptrend.  So far, the indication is for slower economic growth; however, a break of the very short term uptrend would draw that scenario into question.



            The dollar has a great looking chart.  The only (minor) shortcoming is that it hasn’t made a new high in the last week and a half.  Is this a sign of a strong economy or safe haven?



            GLD performance is starting to limp a bit.  While it remains above both MA’s and in a short term uptrend, it is also in a very short term downtrend and continues to build a head and shoulders formation.



            The VIX (12) took another beating on Friday, reestablishing a very short term downtrend; and, as you can see, it is rapidly approaching the lower boundary of its short term trading range (11).  It is also nearing its all time low (9).  Normally, a solid downtrend in the VIX would be a plus for stocks.  But it is now approaching very stretched valuations which typically lead to big bounce (sell off in stocks).



    Fundamental

       Headlines

            The latest (must read) from Jim Grant.
           
    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
           

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            The April NY Fed manufacturing index came in at 10.1 versus expectations of 6.7.

     International

    Other

The growing problem of unfunded pension liabilities.

What I am reading today

            Investing do’s and don’ts.

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