The Morning Call
4/15/19
The
Market
Technical
The
S&P (2907) continues on a roll and is clearly within striking distance of
its all-time high (2942). However, on
Friday, it opened a second gap up and now has two to close---which is going to
create a drag on momentum (I know, I said that before and it hasn’t happened. However, notice those earlier gaps in UUP,
TLT and GLD have all been closed.)
The
long bond has clearly lost some upside momentum in the last two weeks; though in
the process, it managed to close the big gap open of four Friday’s ago---which I
have repeated said needed to be done. Its
chart is still strong with TLT above both MA’s and in a very short term uptrend. So far, the indication is for slower economic
growth; however, a break of the very short term uptrend would draw that scenario
into question.
The
dollar has a great looking chart. The only
(minor) shortcoming is that it hasn’t made a new high in the last week and a
half. Is this a sign of a strong economy
or safe haven?
GLD
performance is starting to limp a bit. While
it remains above both MA’s and in a short term uptrend, it is also in a very
short term downtrend and continues to build a head and shoulders formation.
The
VIX (12) took another beating on Friday, reestablishing a very short term downtrend;
and, as you can see, it is rapidly approaching the lower boundary of its short
term trading range (11). It is also
nearing its all time low (9). Normally,
a solid downtrend in the VIX would be a plus for stocks. But it is now approaching very stretched
valuations which typically lead to big bounce (sell off in stocks).
Fundamental
Headlines
The
latest (must read) from Jim Grant.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
The
April NY Fed manufacturing index came in at 10.1 versus expectations of 6.7.
International
Other
The growing
problem of unfunded pension liabilities.
What
I am reading today
Investing do’s and don’ts.
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