Saturday, April 6, 2019

The Closing Bell


The Closing Bell

4/6/19

Statistical Summary

   Current Economic Forecast
                       
2018 estimates (revised)

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                          1.5-2.5%
                        Inflation                                                                          +1.5-2%
                        Corporate Profits                                                                10-15%

            2019

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                          1.5-2.5%
                        Inflation                                                                          +1.5-2.5%
                        Corporate Profits                                                                5-6%


   Current Market Forecast
           
            Dow Jones Industrial Average

                                    Current Trend (revised):  
                                    Short Term Trading Range                      21691-26646
Intermediate Term Uptrend                     14239-30430
Long Term Uptrend                                  6585-29947
                                               
2018     Year End Fair Value                                   13800-14000

                        2019     Year End Fair Value                                   14500-14700

            Standard & Poor’s 500

                                    Current Trend (revised):
                                    Short Term Trading Range                          2349-2942
                                    Intermediate Term Uptrend                         1353-3163                                                          Long Term Uptrend                                     913-3191
                                                           
2018 Year End Fair Value                                       1700-1720         
                        2019 Year End Fair Value                                     1790-1810

Percentage Cash in Our Portfolios

Dividend Growth Portfolio                           56%
            High Yield Portfolio                                     55%
            Aggressive Growth Portfolio                        56%

Economics/Politics
           
The Trump economy is a neutral for equity valuations.   The data flow this week was upbeat: above estimates: weekly mortgage/purchase applications, weekly jobless claims, March nonfarm payrolls, February consumer credit, the March Markit services and composite PMI’s, the March ISM manufacturing index, February construction spending, March light vehicle sales; below estimates: month to date retail chain store sales, February retail sales, the March ADP private payroll report, the March Markit manufacturing PMI, the March ISM nonmanufacturing index, January business inventories/sales; in line with estimates: February durable goods orders/ex transportation.

The primary indicators were also positive:  February construction spending (+), March nonfarm payrolls (+), February durable goods orders/ex transportation (0), February retail sales (-).  I rate the week a plus.  Score: in the last 182 weeks, fifty-nine positive, eighty-three negative and forty neutral.

The data from overseas this week was also upbeat largely on the back of a flood of positive stats from China (absent those, the numbers would have been flat). Three points:

(1)   my skepticism regarding the veracity of Chinese sunny economic reports notwithstanding, if China’s growth has reaccelerated then this will be a plus for global growth.  However, one week does not a trend make; so, I want to see more confirming data before I account for it in my forecast,

(2)   even if they are totally reliable, don’t forget that there was series of upbeat US datapoints a month ago that led me to raise the question, ‘were these the first signs of a turn for the better in the US economic growth rate?’  And it was not to be.  Nonetheless, if these stats are real, then we may be seeing the nadir in global economic growth,


(3)   confirming my doubts was the steady stream of economic growth downgrades this week from Japan, Germany, Italy and the World Trade Organization.  Japan, Germany and the US are among China’s biggest trading partners; and if those economies are not seeing a pickup in economic activity, I have to question the magnitude, if any, of Chinese economic improvement.

My forecast (for the moment):

Less government regulation, (hopefully) getting out of the Middle East quagmire and possible help from a fairer trade regime are pluses for the long-term US secular economic growth rate.

However, the explosion in deficit spending, exemplified by Trump’s new budget proposal, at a time when the government should be running a surplus, is a secular negative.  My thesis on this issue is that at the current high level of national debt, the cost of servicing the debt more than offsets (1) any stimulative benefit of tax cuts and (2) the secular positives of less government regulation and fairer trade [at least on the agreements that have been renegotiated].

On a cyclical basis, the economic growth rate is slowing as the effects of the tax cut wear off.  However, there are some initial signs that global economic growth could be bottoming.  If they presage improvement, then clearly the near term outlook for economic and corporate profit growth will be enhanced.  Nonetheless even if the economy were to improve cyclically, it will still be unable to return to its prior secular rate of growth as a result of too much debt to service.

           The negatives:

(1)   a vulnerable global banking [financial] system.

The liquidity risks in the global banking system.

Deutschebank’s long history of compliance failure.

This is great article on why many bank balance sheets are weaker than they appear and what caused it.

(2) fiscal/regulatory policy. 

The happy talk about a US/China trade deal just keeps on coming, though the lack of consistency makes my hair hurt.  This week, rumors abounded that a Trump/Xi meeting was near at hand AND that the deal included a provision that the Chinese don’t have to fully comply with the terms until 2025.  In other words, after Trump leaves office, even assuming that he is reelected in 2020.  

But then those stories were put to rest when Trump said a meeting could be months away; and Lighthizer made even less optimistic noises.  Finally on Friday, Xi rekindled hopes saying that the talks were making great progress.  So clearly, we have no clue on the true state of the talks---that is not a knock; just am observation.

Plus, we don’t know if the 2025 deadline is one of the provisions.  So before getting bent out of shape, we need to see the final product.  But Trump’s move to offer a similar delay to the Mexican government in the implementation of corrections to its handling of immigrants on our southern border suggests that a delayed deadline is now a tactic in ‘the art of the deal’.

To be sure, all is not bad even if the 2025 deadline is correct.  Any increase in trade that results from an agreement should be a plus for cyclical economic growth.  The questions will be [a] the magnitude of any improvement in trade and [b] whether or not is enough to turnaround the poor numbers of Japan, Germany and the US.

Bottom line: whatever the impact that might come from a US/China trade deal, irresponsible deficit spending will restrain US secular economic growth.

And.

(2)   the potential negative impact of central bank money printing:  The key point here is that [a] the Fed has inflated bank reserves far beyond any comparable level in history and [b] while this hasn’t been an economic problem to date, {i} it still has to withdraw all those reserves from the system without creating any disruptions---a task that I regularly point out it has proven inept at in the past and {ii} it has created  asset bubbles in the stock market as well as in the auto, student and mortgage loan markets.  

Little news this week, although Trump’s comments on Friday about the need for QEIV demonstrate just how economically challenged he is.  He has already set fiscal policy on a reckless course [running huge deficits at a time in which the country should be shrinking, or least stop growing, its debt].  Now it seems that he wants a two-fer---easier monetary policy when interest rates are near historic lows and the Fed still has a $4 trillion balance sheet. 

[Note: I recognize that Trump and his advisors think that easier money will stimulate economic growth at a time that is slowing---his contradictory comments about how great the economy is notwithstanding.  Unfortunately, we already have ten straight years of subpar growth despite QEI, QEII, QEIII and Operation Twist.  What is that definition of insanity?]

I repeat my bottom line:

[a] the 180 degree turn in policy in the last three months {i} demonstrates the extent to which the Fed has been kidding itself/you/me about the strength of the economy and {ii} clearly supports my long term thesis that the Fed has never in its history managed a successful transition from easy to normal monetary policy,

[b] easy money will do little to improve economic growth but, if history is any guide, will keep investors buying every asset in sight.

I believe that the Fed has finally painted itself into a box from which there is no easy exit: [a] if inflation accelerates, the Fed will ultimately be compelled to tightening policy irrespective of Market reaction or [b] if economic growth continues to decelerate, any additional QE will prove ineffective in halting the slowdown; and Markets don’t like recessions.

The Fed can’t fight a crisis, it can only cause it.
      
Ditto the Bank of Japan.

(3)   geopolitical risks: 

Europe is a mess with Brexit [which may or may not have a very short shelf life], riots in France and fiscal policy discord in Italy; and it continues to be reflected in a negative way in the economic stats.

You never know how the situations in Venezuela, Israel and Kashmir will play out.

(4)   economic difficulties around the globe.  The stats this week were upbeat driven largely by the dataflow out of China.  As I noted above, one week’s numbers are hardly a reason to consider altering a forecast, though it certainly can’t be ignored.  Follow through.  

[a] February EU retail sales were above forecasts while PPI was in line; the March EU manufacturing PMI was below estimates while the services and composite PMI’s were above; February inflation was below projections, unemployment was in line; February German factory orders were below consensus while industrial production was above,

[b] the March Chinese manufacturing PMI, the small business PMI, the nonmanufacturing PMI, the small business services PMI and the composite PMI were better than anticipated,
   
[c] Q1 Japanese manufacturing, services and all industry indices were below estimates, the nonmanufacturing index was in line; February household spending and cash earnings were much less than projected; the February leading economic indicators were slightly better than expected; the March manufacturing index was better than consensus.

            Bottom line:  on a secular basis, the US economy is growing at an historically below average rate.  Although some recent policy changes are a plus for secular growth, they are being offset by totally irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies. 
          
Cyclically, the US economy is slowing as evidenced by the data from both here and abroad (?).  Further, the reversal of Fed policy and plunge in interest rates put an exclamation point of that notion.

          Finally, any move to a more dovish stance by the Fed is not likely to have an impact, cyclical or secular, on the economy.  QE II, III, and Operation Twist didn’t, and QE IV probably won’t either.   Meaning that if the Fed thinks backing off QT or lowering the Fed Funds rate will help support economic growth, in my opinion, it will be disappointed.

The Market-Disciplined Investing
           
  Technical

The Averages (DJIA 26424, S&P 2892) continued their advance toward their all- time highs (26951/2942) with no visible resistance in the way.  There are still negatives that may inhibit momentum---the pin action in the dollar and bonds as well as Monday’s gap up open (that will likely be closed).

Volume was flat.  Breadth improved, though the flow of funds indicators continues to decline.

The VIX dropped 5 ½ %, ending back below its double bottom and, in the process, voiding the developing inverse head and shoulders pattern (a plus for stock prices). 

The long bond rallied, its chart remaining strong---in a very short term uptrend and above MA’s.  However, it has yet to close that gap open of three Friday’s ago. More downside would not be surprising.

And.

The dollar was up again, this time closing above its prior high.  If it remains there through close on Monday, it will set a very short term uptrend.  The bad news is that it gapped up on last Wednesday’s open and that needs closing.

GLD was off fractionally.  It is still in a solid uptrend.  The other good news is that it touched and then bounced off the 100 DMA and the double bottom; and last Thursday’s gap down open needs to be closed.  The bad news is that it continues to develop a head and shoulders pattern.

Bottom line: while the Averages are moving into overbought territory, it is not extreme.  There is nothing standing between them and their all-time highs.  However, there is enough negatives coming from other indicators (mixed signals from the dollar, the long bond and gold plus Monday’s gap up open) to create some doubt about the strength of any upward momentum.

Friday in the charts.

Fundamental-A Dividend Growth Investment Strategy

The DJIA and the S&P are well above ‘Fair Value’ (as calculated by our Valuation Model), the improved regulatory environment and the potential pluses from trade notwithstanding.  At the moment, the important factors bearing on Fair Value (corporate profitability and the rate at which it is discounted) are:

(1)   the extent to which the economy is growing---which the trend in the dataflow suggests is meager.  Plus the stampede by the central banks to ease along with the pin action in the global bond markets, the dollar and gold are confirming further economic weakness, perhaps, even recession.  That is not my call, at the moment.  Certainly, this week’s Chinese data could point to a potential turnaround in global growth, but it is way too soon to be getting positive.

In short, the economy is not a negative [yet] but it is not a plus at current valuation levels.

(2)   the success of current trade negotiations.  If Trump is able to create a fairer political/trade regime, it would almost surely be constructive for secular earnings growth.  While there was more happy talk this week on the US/China trade negotiations, unfortunately, the entire narrative on this issue has been so muddied by the obvious political/Market oriented nature of the administration’s comments that I, for one, have no idea about the true state of the current trade talks with China. 

As you know, I have been somewhat skeptical that a comprehensive agreement on Chinese industrial policy and IP theft could be reached in the short term.   This week’s news flow only adds to my suspicions.

My concern is not that we get no deal or a small deal but that the Chinese out maneuver Trump and he gives away the need for progress on industrial policy and IP theft just to get a deal.

(3)   the resumption of QE by the global central banks.  If QEII, QEIII and Operation Twist are any guide, the latest Fed move should be a big plus for the Markets, at least in the short term.

(4)   current valuations. the Averages have recouped much of their October to December loss and appear on their way to regaining even more.  Since they were grossly overvalued [as determined by my Valuation Model] in October, they are now just slightly less grossly overvalued.  That said, if the latest central bank liquidity surge continues, valuations will remain irrelevant.

As prices continue to rise, I will again be focusing on those stocks that trade into their Sell Half Range and act accordingly.

Bottom line: fiscal policy is negatively impacting the E in P/E, although a new regulatory environment is a plus.  Any improvement in our trade regime with China should have a positive impact on secular growth and, hence, equity valuations---if it occurs.  More important, a global central bank ‘put’ has returned and, if history is any guide, will almost assuredly be a plus for stock prices. 

            As a reminder, my Portfolio’s cash position didn’t reach its current level as a result of the Valuation Models estimate of Fair Value for the Averages.  Rather I apply it to each stock in my Portfolio and when a stock reaches its Sell Half Range (overvalued), I reduce the size of that holding.  That forces me to recognize a portion of the profit of a successful investment and, just as important, build a reserve to buy stocks cheaply when the inevitable decline occurs.

DJIA             S&P

Current 2019 Year End Fair Value*              14600             1800
Fair Value as of 4/30/19                                 14132            1738
Close this week                                               26424            2892

* Just a reminder that the Year End Fair Value number is based on the long term secular growth of the earning power of productive capacity of the US economy not the near term   cyclical influences.  The model is now accounting for somewhat below average secular growth for the next 3 to 5 years. 

The Portfolios and Buy Lists are up to date.








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