The
Morning Call
12/16/19
The Market
Technical
The
S&P resumed its upward momentum last week, resetting a very short term
uptrend while remaining above both MA’s and in uptrends across all
timeframes. Nonetheless, it has three
unfilled gap up opens beneath it.
Despite
TLT having closed all the gap opens,
volatility remains. Friday, it bounced
off the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend, but still ended below
its 100 DMA and in a trend of lower highs.
But it does appear to be developing a pennant formation (series of
higher lows)---which would confirm uncertainty/confusion within the bond crowd.
Having
held up well during all the volatility during late November, UUP technical
position has deteriorated during the last two weeks. Its 100 DMA has revert to resistance. It has also reset its short term uptrend to a
trading range and now challenging the lower boundary of that trading
range. All this suggests a weaker
economy.
GLD
continues to bump up against the upper boundary of its very short term uptrend
with added help of the added restraint offered by the 100 DMA. Like TLT, it seems to be developing a pennant
formation and like TLT reflects uncertainty/confusion among GLD investors.
The
VIX has had three big upbeat days this month and spent the rest of its time
pushing back toward or in a range indicative of complacency. Given that the news flow has been largely
positive of late along with the added benefit of seasonal factors, it is apt to
remain in this territory near term.
Fundamental
Headlines
Today
is the first test of the Fed’s massive liquidity injection.
***just
in
How
much good has QEInfinity done?
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
AT&T (NYSE:T) declares $0.52/share quarterly dividend, 2%
increase from prior dividend of $0.51.
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
The December NY
Fed manufacturing index came in at 3.5 versus consensus of 4.0.
International
The
December Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 48.8 versus estimates of 48.4,
the services PMI was 50.6 versus 49.8, the composite PMI was 49.8 versus 49.9;
the December German flash manufacturing PMI was 43.4 versus 44.5, the services
PMI was 52.0, in line, the composite PMI was 49.9 versus 49.9; the December EU
flash manufacturing PIM was 45.9 versus 47.3, the services PMI was 52.4 versus
52.0, the composite PMI was 50.6 versus 50.7; the December UK flash
manufacturing PMI was 47.4 versus 49.3, the services PMI was 49.0 versus 49.6,
the composite PMI was 48.5 versus 49.6.
The
November Chinese YoY fixed investment grew 5.2%, in line, industrial production
was up 6.2% versus 5.0%, retail sales increased 8% versus 7.6%.
Other
What I am reading today
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