Monday, December 16, 2019

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call


The Market

            The S&P resumed its upward momentum last week, resetting a very short term uptrend while remaining above both MA’s and in uptrends across all timeframes.  Nonetheless, it has three unfilled gap up opens beneath it.

            Despite TLT  having closed all the gap opens, volatility remains.  Friday, it bounced off the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend, but still ended below its 100 DMA and in a trend of lower highs.  But it does appear to be developing a pennant formation (series of higher lows)---which would confirm uncertainty/confusion within the bond crowd.

            Having held up well during all the volatility during late November, UUP technical position has deteriorated during the last two weeks.  Its 100 DMA has revert to resistance.  It has also reset its short term uptrend to a trading range and now challenging the lower boundary of that trading range.  All this suggests a weaker economy.

            GLD continues to bump up against the upper boundary of its very short term uptrend with added help of the added restraint offered by the 100 DMA.  Like TLT, it seems to be developing a pennant formation and like TLT reflects uncertainty/confusion among GLD investors.

            The VIX has had three big upbeat days this month and spent the rest of its time pushing back toward or in a range indicative of complacency.  Given that the news flow has been largely positive of late along with the added benefit of seasonal factors, it is apt to remain in this territory near term.



            Today is the first test of the Fed’s massive liquidity injection.

            ***just in

            How much good has QEInfinity done?         

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

AT&T (NYSE:T) declares $0.52/share quarterly dividend, 2% increase from prior dividend of $0.51.

   This Week’s Data


The December NY Fed manufacturing index came in at 3.5 versus consensus of 4.0.


            The December Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 48.8 versus estimates of 48.4, the services PMI was 50.6 versus 49.8, the composite PMI was 49.8 versus 49.9; the December German flash manufacturing PMI was 43.4 versus 44.5, the services PMI was 52.0, in line, the composite PMI was 49.9 versus 49.9; the December EU flash manufacturing PIM was 45.9 versus 47.3, the services PMI was 52.4 versus 52.0, the composite PMI was 50.6 versus 50.7; the December UK flash manufacturing PMI was 47.4 versus 49.3, the services PMI was 49.0 versus 49.6, the composite PMI was 48.5 versus 49.6.

            The November Chinese YoY fixed investment grew 5.2%, in line, industrial production was up 6.2% versus 5.0%, retail sales increased 8% versus 7.6%.


What I am reading today


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