The Morning Call
12/19/19
Our #3 granddaughter arrives today
to start the Christmas season. I am
taking off until after New Year’s. Have
great Holiday Season.
The
Market
Technical
The Averages (28229,
3191) inched downward yesterday, but still closed above both MA’s and in
uptrends across all timeframes. So,
momentum remains to the upside, at least short term; and that is being aided by
seasonal factors.
And.
However, nothing
changed with respect to those multiple gap up opens down below or my concern
that this is not healthy and could be an indication that the Market is entering
or has already entered a blow off top.
Volume was flat;
breadth weaker than I had expected but remains near overbought territory. The VIX was up 2 3/8%, but ended near the
lows established last April, July and November.
The long bond declined
7/8%, finishing (1) below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend which is also the lower boundary of the current
pennant formation. If it remains there
through the close today, it will negated the very short term uptrend. If it remains there through the close on
Friday, it will void the pennant formation, which would be a decidedly negative
technical sign for TLT, and (2) right on the lower boundary of its short term
trading range. (must read)
The dollar rose ¼ %,
but still ended near the lower boundary of its short term trading range.
Gold was up one cent,
closing within a developing pennant formation.
The trading
pattern of the VIX and the S&P are clearly pointing at a stronger economy. And now TLT appears ready to join the crowd. UUP and GLD continue to suggest uncertainty
among their investors.
Wednesday in the
charts.
Fundamental
Headlines
Only one minor US
datapoint was released yesterday. Weekly
mortgage and purchase applications declined.
The latest
business cycle risk report.
The latest Atlanta
Fed Q4 GDPNow forecast.
Overseas, October
EU YoY construction output and November German PPI were disappointing, the
November Japanese trade deficit was much better than anticipated and November
EU and UK CPI’s were in line.
Bottom line: the impeachment hearings sucked
all the air out of the Market yesterday.
Indeed, given the extent of its overbought condition, I was surprised that
it wasn’t off more. But I guess that the
irresistible force of $500 billion being pumped into the financial system can
overcome all.
***overnight, the
Bank of Japan left rates unchanged and will continue QE; the Bank of China made
a huge liquidity infusion into its financial system; the Bank of Sweden raised
its key bank rate.; the Bank of England left rates unchanged but hinted that it
may start tightening. Is this the
beginning of the end or just noise?
Trump has never
been serious about fiscal responsibility.
***overnight, US
and China discussing the signing of the Phase One traded deal.
The latest from
Stanley Druckenmiller.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Revenue of $990.7M (+15.3% Y/Y) beats by $2.44M.
Revenue of $11.36B (+7.1% Y/Y) beats by $210M.
Accenture
(NYSE:ACN)
declares $0.80/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
FactSet
Research Systems (NYSE:FDS): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.58 beats by $0.16; GAAP EPS of $2.43 beats by $0.24.
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
Weekly
jobless claims fell 18,000 versus expectations of down 27,000.
The
Q3 trade deficit was $124.1 billion versus consensus of $122.1 billion.
The
December Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at 0.3 versus estimates
of 8.0.
International
November
UK retail sales fell 0.6% versus forecasts of +0.3%.
Other
What
I am reading today
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