Thursday, July 24, 2025

The Morning Call---Trump tariffs go to court

 

The Morning Call

 

7/24/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/deals-dismal-data-send-bonds-bullion-bitcoin-lower-quant-chaos-continues

 

                Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Ten charts that Goldman traders are watching.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldilocks-3-bears-these-are-10-charts-goldman-traders-are-discussing-most

 

            Margin debt surges in June.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/23/margin-debt-surges-record-high-june-2025

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly jobless claims totaled 217,000 versus estimates of 227,000.

 

                          June building permits were down 0.1% versus projections of +0.2%.

 

                          June existing home sales fell 2.7% versus forecasts of -0.7%.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/07/june-existing-home-sales-pause-in.html

 

                                                  The June Chicago Fed national activity index was -0.1, in line.

 

                        International

 

The July Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 48.8 versus consensus of 50.2; the flash services PMI was 53.5 versus 51.3; the flash composite PMI was 51.5 versus 50.0; the July German flash manufacturing PMI was 49.2 versus 49.5; the flash services PMI was 50.1 versus 50.0; the flash composite PMI was 50.3 versus 50.7; the July EU flash manufacturing PMI was 49.8 versus 49.7; the flash services PMI was 51.2 versus 50.7; the flash composite PMI was 51.0 versus 50.8; the July UK flash manufacturing PMI was 48.2 versus 48.0; the flash services PMI was 51.2 versus 53.0; the flash composite PMI was 51.0 versus 51.8.

 

The July EU flash consumer confidence index came in at -14.7 versus expectations of -15; the August German consumer confidence index was -21.5 versus -19.2.

 

The July UK industrial trends orders index was -30 versus estimates of -28; the Q3 business optimism index was -27 versus -31.

 

                        Other

 

                          The case for a stronger dollar.

                          https://www.apolloacademy.com/outlook-for-the-us-dollar/

 

            Monetary Policy

           

 Here is the argument for lowering rates. I would counter that the bond market is smarter and more accurate than all the economists in the world. The author isn’t even an economist. He is a political analyst and the bond market is saying leave rates where they are.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/faith-freedom-self-reliance/3475951/trump-is-right-time-to-cut-interest-rates/

 

Unfortunately, the White House is as confused as the economists. Here is one of Trump’s own applauding a capital spending boom which is hardly an argument for lowering rates.

https://www.axios.com/2025/07/22/trump-economy-treasury-data

 

              ECB keeps rates unchanged.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/ecb-keeps-rates-unchanged-expected

 

            Tariffs

 

              Another argument against tariffs.

              https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/07/21/trump-tariffs-trade-war-costs/

 

              EU readies E100 billion tariff plan if no deal.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-23/eu-readies-100-billion-no-deal-plan-to-match-us-30-tariff?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ     

 

             We apparently have a deal with Indonesia, but details are sketchy.

             https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/indonesia-to-remove-numerous-trade-barriers-white-house-says-f19832d5?mod=economy_lead_pos3

 

              On the other hand, it may not matter if the courts rule against Trump.

              Trump's Tariffs Go To Court

 

     Investing

 

            The latest from AllianceBernstein.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/07/23/capital-markets-3q-2025-red-green-yellow-light

 

                Crypto enters new policy era.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/market-commentary/ethereum-stands-to-gain-as-us-crypto-policy-enters-new-era?post=510980

 

                The rise and risk of stablecoins.

            https://www.ft.com/content/b3063d9a-d161-4dda-96bb-ea0dfaa2488d

 

                Ethereum continues to attract investors.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/spot-ether-etfs-attract-533m-extend-13-day-inflow-streak-over-4b

 

                Three things driving an uncertain dollar.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/3-things-driving-an-uncertain-dollar?post=511003

               

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

General Dynamics raises 2025 revenue outlook to $51.2B while increasing EPS forecast to $15.05–$15.15 amid record orders and strong Marine growth

 

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) declares $5.21/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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