The Morning Call
7/24/25
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Wednesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
Ten charts that
Goldman traders are watching.
Margin debt surges
in June.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly jobless claims totaled 217,000 versus estimates of 227,000.
June building permits were down 0.1% versus
projections of +0.2%.
June existing home sales fell 2.7% versus forecasts
of -0.7%.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/07/june-existing-home-sales-pause-in.html
The June Chicago Fed national activity index
was -0.1, in line.
International
The July Japanese
flash manufacturing PMI was 48.8 versus consensus of 50.2; the flash services
PMI was 53.5 versus 51.3; the flash composite PMI was 51.5 versus 50.0; the July
German flash manufacturing PMI was 49.2 versus 49.5; the flash services PMI was
50.1 versus 50.0; the flash composite PMI was 50.3 versus 50.7; the July EU
flash manufacturing PMI was 49.8 versus 49.7; the flash services PMI was 51.2
versus 50.7; the flash composite PMI was 51.0 versus 50.8; the July UK flash
manufacturing PMI was 48.2 versus 48.0; the flash services PMI was 51.2 versus
53.0; the flash composite PMI was 51.0 versus 51.8.
The July EU flash
consumer confidence index came in at -14.7 versus expectations of -15; the
August German consumer confidence index was -21.5 versus -19.2.
The July UK
industrial trends orders index was -30 versus estimates of -28; the Q3 business
optimism index was -27 versus -31.
Other
The case for a stronger dollar.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/outlook-for-the-us-dollar/
Monetary
Policy
Here is the argument for lowering rates. I
would counter that the bond market is smarter and more accurate than all the
economists in the world. The author isn’t even an economist. He is a political analyst
and the bond market is saying leave rates where they are.
Unfortunately, the
White House is as confused as the economists. Here is one of Trump’s own applauding
a capital spending boom which is hardly an argument for lowering rates.
https://www.axios.com/2025/07/22/trump-economy-treasury-data
ECB keeps rates unchanged.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/ecb-keeps-rates-unchanged-expected
Tariffs
Another argument against tariffs.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/07/21/trump-tariffs-trade-war-costs/
EU readies E100 billion tariff plan if no
deal.
We apparently have a deal with Indonesia, but
details are sketchy.
On the other hand, it may not matter if the
courts rule against Trump.
Investing
The latest from
AllianceBernstein.
Crypto enters new policy era.
The rise and risk of stablecoins.
https://www.ft.com/content/b3063d9a-d161-4dda-96bb-ea0dfaa2488d
Ethereum continues to attract investors.
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/spot-ether-etfs-attract-533m-extend-13-day-inflow-streak-over-4b
Three things driving an uncertain dollar.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/3-things-driving-an-uncertain-dollar?post=511003
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) declares $5.21/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
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