The Morning Call--Retail speculation is back

 

The Morning Call

 

7/22/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bonds-bullion-big-tech-bid-seasonals-shift

 

            Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Is Market participation a warning sign?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/is-market-participation-a-warning-sign?post=510528

 

            The latest from Goldman.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/capitulatory-inflows-complete-flows-technicals-and-positioning-market-recap

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          The June leading economic index fell 0.3% versus consensus of -0.2%.

 

                        International

 

                        Other

           

                          The fallacy of the ‘China shock’.

                          https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/what-does-china-shock-actually-mean

 

                          The economy is regaining its swagger.

                          https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-u-s-economy-is-regaining-its-swagger-922623e3?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

                          June real average wages and aggregate payrolls.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/07/real-average-wages-and-aggregate.html

 

           

            Overnight News

Trump’s targeting of trade loopholes would threaten 70% of China’s US exports and more than 2.1% of GDP.

 

The prospects of an interim trade deal between India and the United States before Washington's August 1 deadline have dimmed, as talks remain deadlocked over tariff cuts on key agricultural and dairy products.

 

A growing number of European Union member states, including Germany, are considering using wide-ranging "anti-coercion" measures targeting U.S. services if the EU cannot reach a trade deal with U.S. President Donald Trump

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Kevin Hassett as Fed chair?

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2025/07/20/kevin-hassett-truly-wants-to-be-fed-chair-thats-whats-so-dangerous/

 

              The latest nowcast on Fed rate increases.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/07/s-500-looking-at-fed-for-direction-on.html

 

              The uselessness of the Fed.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/07/21/applying_the_bedford_falls_rule_to_the_federal_reserve_1123776.html

 

              Powell referred to DOJ for perjury.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fed-chair-powell-criminally-referred-doj-perjury

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The lesson from the French Revolution.

              https://chroniclesmagazine.org/web/bastille-day-should-be-a-reminder-to-americans-about-the-dangers-of-debt-crisis/

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflationary confusion.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/07/21/confusion-inflationary

 

            Tariffs

 

              EU’s response to Trump tariffs.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/eus-response-to-trumps-tariffs-if-they-want-war-they-will-get-war/

 

     Investing

 

            No sign of investors fleeing ‘American exceptionalism’.

            https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/no-sign-of-investors-fleeing-us-exceptionalism

 

             Momentum is waning.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-21/s-p-500-sends-a-signal-of-waning-momentum-under-rally-s-surface?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                        Deutsch bank warns.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/deutsche-bank-warns-beware-end-month

 

                        Risk-on sentiment remains resilient.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-on-sentiment-remains-resilient-for-global-strategies/

 

                        The growing importance of ethereum.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/financial/a-14-trillion-wall-street-firm-just-changed-everything-for-ethereum?post=510372

 

                        Retail speculation is back with a vengeance.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-speculation-back-vengeance

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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