The Morning Call--10 year Treasury still worried about inflation

 

The Morning Call

 

3/14/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-spikes-record-high-tariff-tumult-schumer-shutdown-slam-stocks

 

            More.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/muted-volatility-cheap-tech-and-shiny-gold

 

            Why cooler inflation data didn’t lift the Market.

            Why Cooler Inflation Isn't Lifting Markets

           

            Elliott Wave analysis on silver.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/silver-commodity-elliott-wave-technical-analysis?post=486611

 

            Is the whole selloff in bitcoin finally over?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/bitcoin-shows-signs-of-recovery-is-the-whale-sell-off-finally-over?post=486638

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                         

                        International

 

January UK industrial production fell 0.9% versus expectations of -0.1%; January YoY construction output was up 0.2% versus up 0.4%; January YoY GDP growth was +1.0% versus +1.2%.

 

February German CPI was up 0.4%, in line; February PPI was up 0.6% versus +0.2%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Thursday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-12th-2025/

 

1.1  million homeowners with negative equity.

  https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/corelogic-11-million-homeowners-with.html

 

                          Yesterday’s PPI number not as benign as it looked.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/03/producer-prices-may-show-first.html

 

            Overnight News

 

              Schumer folds.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/schumer-shutdown-two-ways-can-go

 

Canada's Finance Minister LeBlanc said they agreed to continue discussions in the meeting with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick, while they have been clear that they will not reopen USMCA provisions on dairy and didn't discuss that with Lutnick.

 

Canada's Industry Minister Champagne said there was a mutual understanding that there is an impact on both sides of the border from tariffs and they talked about issues around economic security and national security with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick. Furthermore, they talked about Canadian aluminum steel and how they can help the US.

 

Ontario's Premier Ford said they had a productive meeting with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and will have another meeting next week, while he feels temperatures are decreasing and said it was the best meeting they had since tariff talks began.

 

            Fiscal Policy

           

              One fact missing from every DOGE story.

              https://issuesinsights.com/2025/03/11/one-fact-missing-from-every-doge-story/

 

            Inflation

 

The market premium on the 10 year Treasury suggests continuing market concern over inflation.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-13-march-2025/

 

            Tariffs

 

              MAGA’s manufacturing nostalgia.

              https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/magas-manufacturing-nostalgia/

 

            The EU/US trade war escalates.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-13/trump-vows-200-tariff-on-eu-wine-escalating-trade-tensions?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

     Investing

 

            Are tariffs the real reason behind this selloff?

            https://sherwood.news/markets/for-markets-trumps-tariff-threats-are-quantitative-easing-in-reverse/

 

            Untradeable market.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/business/trump-stock-market.html

 

            ‘Buy the dip’ fades to not ‘catching a falling knife’.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-13/-buy-the-dip-calls-fade-as-trump-selloffs-rattle-wall-street?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Stagflation bet emerges as the winner.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-13/stagflation-trade-emerges-as-rare-winner-in-us-stock-market-rout?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            The argument against a ‘crypto reserve’ fund.

            https://www.thefp.com/p/trumps-crypto-fort-knox

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Kroger (NYSE:KR) declares $0.32/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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