The Morning Call---Real yields are ringing the warning bell

 

The Morning Call

 

2/19/21

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crypto-crash-continues-dollar-drops-oil-natgas-tumble

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

January Japanese CPI was +0.6% versus -0.1% reported in December; the February flash manufacturing PMI was 50.6 versus 49.8 in January; the flash services PMI was 45.8 versus 46.1; the flash composite PMI was 47.6 versus 47.1.

 

January UK retail sales fell 8.2% versus estimates of -2.5%; ex autos, they were -8.8% versus -2.6%; the February flash manufacturing PMI was 54.9 versus 53.2; the flash services PMI was 49.7 versus 41.0; the flash composite was 49.8 versus 42.8.

 

January German PPI was +1.4% versus consensus of +0.8%; the February flash manufacturing PMI was 60.6 versus 56.5; the flash services PMI was 45.9 versus 46.5; the flash composite PMI was 51.3 versus 50.5.

 

The February EU flash manufacturing PMI was 57.7 versus forecasts of 54.3; the flash services PMI was 44.7 versus 45.9; the flash composite PMI was 48.1 versus 48.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Hotel occupancy down 29% YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/02/hotels-occupancy-rate-declined-290-year.html

 

            Inflation

 

              The pandemic could contribute to higher inflation.

              https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-covid19-pandemic-could-lead-to-higher-inflation-by-axel-weber-1-2021-02

 

              Rising expected inflation.

              http://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/02/rising-expected-inflation-to-about-2

 

              Four things to know about inflation in 2021.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/02/18/four-things-investors-should-know-about-us-inflation-in-2021

 

                          US prices percolate with rising consumer spending.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-18/u-s-price-pressures-percolate-with-surging-sales-input-costs?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          Interest rates will continue to rise but don’t blame it on inflation.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html

 

                        Bottom line.

 

              Gundlach joins the bitcoin parade.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gundlach-changes-his-mind-bitcoin-first-north-american-crypto-etf-launches

 

 

                         Rising yields are ringing the warning bell.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/real-yields-are-ringing-warning-bell-risk-rally

 

              Real yields exploding.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/realyields

 

             How oil would behave in a commodity super cycle.

             https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/commodity-super-cycle-could-be-unlike-anything-weve-seen

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) declares $1.30/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Facebook: presented without comment.

            https://www.ft.com/content/577bc7f5-efb5-448c-9560-d31c97cfdcd3

 

            Why do we even have dogs?

            https://slate.com/technology/2021/02/why-humans-domesticated-dogs-research.html

 

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