The Morning Call
2/3/21
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-crypto-bond-yields-jump-wsb-game-stopped
Is a larger
correction coming?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/larger-correction-coming
Bottom
line. Market technicals remain the immediate
story. The Reddit crowd took a licking
yesterday as their ‘most shorted’ targets declined substantially and their newest
mark, silver, could not sustain their initially onslaught. I said yesterday that this whole Reddit phenomena
may be over and the pin action would support that judgment. However, I think it is too early to write it
off. Stay watchful---I would not get
sucked into yesterday’s Market bounce back.
Yellen
gets ethics waiver to lead investigation of the Reddit phenomena.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications were up 8.1%, purchase applications up 0.1.
The January ADP private
payrolls report showed job increases of 174,000 versus predictions of 49,000.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/adp-employment-rebounds-january-after-december-drop
International
The January
Japanese services PMI came in at 46.1 versus estimates of 45.7; the Chinese
Caixin services PMI was 52.0 (no forecast provided); the German services PMI
was 46.7 versus 46.8; the EU services PMI was 45.4 versus 45.0; the UK services
PMI was 39.5 versus 38.8.
The January
Japanese composite PMI was 47.1 versus consensus of 56.7; the Chinese composite
PMI was 52.2 (no forecast provided); the German composite PMI was 50.8, in
line; the EU composite PMI was 45.4 versus 45.0; the UK composite PMI was 41.2
versus 40.6.
The January EU CPI
was reported at 0.2% (no estimate provided); PPI was 0.8% versus 0.7%.
Other
December median household income.
Regional
Fed manufacturing indices overview.
Bankruptcies declined 29.7% in 2020.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/02/us-courts-bankruptcy-filings-decline.html
Framing lumber prices doubled YoY.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/02/update-framing-lumber-prices-almost.html
Fiscal
Policy
The argument in favor of Biden’s $1.9 trillion
stimulus plan.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/upshot/biden-economic-stimulus.html
The fiscal dilemma keeps getting worse.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/has-joe-biden-lost-his-mind
Bottom
line. Valuations exceed dot.com highs.
https://www.ft.com/content/d424625f-6cff-4cd2-bb6a-ff95ec440899
An interview with Howard Marks.
https://themarket.ch/interview/howard-marks-the-biggest-risk-is-rising-interest-rates-ld.3537
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR) declares
$0.505/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
The benefits of an open
society.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/johan-norberg-and-open-societies
The
loss of organizational IQ.
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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