Tuesday, March 17, 2020

The Morning Call--Once, Twice, Three times a loser

The Morning Call


The Market

The Averages  (20188, 2386) plummeted again yesterday continuing the technical damage.  The S&P finished below the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend for a fourth day, resetting to a trading range  The Dow ended back below the newly reset lower boundary of its short term trading range,; if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will reset to a downtrend.  

TLT, GLD and UUP continued their volatility.  TLT  remained positive, ending back above the upper boundary of its intermediate term uptrend.  GLD is still being sold, finishing below its 100 DMA for a second day and below its 200 DMA.  The UUP was pounded, closing back below its 100 and 200 DMA---the second reversal in as many days. 

The question no longer includes whether what is occurring with TLT, GLD, UUP  is a trading blip but remains are they starting to forecast a major change/incident in the economy as they did from late 2018 to their recent peak (low)?’ ---for instance, a Market rattling credit/liquidity event which would explain higher yields, lower gold prices and a strong dollar.
            Monday in the charts.



            The economic impact of the coronavirus is starting to show up in the numbers.  In the US, the March NY Fed manufacturing index fell off the cliff.

            Goldman sees GDP shrinking 5% in second quarter.

            Overseas, January/February Chinese YTD fixed asset investments, industrial production and retail sales were horrible.  The one bright spot was January Japanese machinery orders which were better than expected.

            The main headline of the day was the howitzer the Fed fired over the weekend.  I covered that in yesterday’s Morning Call. 

                        Why the F/X swap lines that the Fed created are so important.

            Central banks pull out all stops.

            But none of this is solving the problem---repo market remains frozen.

***overnight developments on the coronavirus.

Thoughts on the coronavirus crisis from Greg Mankiw.
            Fatality estimates in the US.

            ***overnight, White House unveils $850 billion rescue package.

            Bottom line: yesterday’s terrible pin action was the third time that the Fed has plowed money into the financial system and the Market didn’t care.  I think it reasonable to assume that the Fed put is now dead---which I have long thought would mark the beginning of the end of the mispricing and misallocation of assets.  I am not smart enough to know how much of the Fed puts premium remains in equity prices.  But clearly it is being removed with a vengeance.   

            My strategy remains: when the stocks of companies that you want to own are down 50% or more and/or are selling into their Buy Value Ranges, that is the time to put cash reserves to work---you know sell high, buy low.  That said, I am no Market timing guru; so, a slow steady buy program on down days is the best I can do at buying low.

            Levels of losing.

    Subscriber Alert

            The stock price of CVS Health Corp (CVS) has traded into its Buy Value Range.  Accordingly, it is being Added to the Dividend Growth Buy List.  At the Market open, the Dividend Growth Portfolio will Buy a one-half position in CVS.      

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios


   This Week’s Data


            February retail sales fell 0.5% versus expectations of a 0.2% increase; ex autos, they declined 0.4% versus +0.2%.


            January Japanese industrial production rose 1.0% versus consensus of +0.8%; capacity utilization was +1.1% versus -0.5%.

            January UK unemployment was 3.9% versus estimates of 3.8%; average earnings were up 3.1% versus +3,8%.

            March EU economic sentiment came in at -49.5 versus forecasts of -36; German economic sentiment was -49.5 versus -26.4.


            Latest numbers on restaurant traffic.

What I am reading today

            Images from the underwater photographer of the year contest.

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