The Morning Call
3/30/20
The
Market
Technical
The S&P’s chart
is pretty self-explanatory. The index is
in a short term downtrend. It has
rallied off the lower boundary of that trend; but remains a good distance away from
making a challenge of its upper boundary (~2739). If the downtrend continues, the next visible
support level is ~1810.
And.
The long bond maintains
its robust upward momentum. The upper
boundaries of its very short term and intermediate term uptrends don’t seem to
be offering much resistance; so, my assumption is that there is little
restraining a further move to the upside.
Gold’s chart
remains strong. There are a couple of things
to note: (1) GLD has tried several times to push through the closely aligned upper
boundaries of its very short term and short term uptrends---unsuccessfully
so. I interpret that to mean that those
boundaries will continue to act as rising upside resistance, (2) on Monday, it
bounced off both DMA’s; so they likely represent support and (3) it created gap
up opens on both Monday and Tuesday which represents a very short term magnetic
pull to the downside.
The pin action in
the dollar is as unusual as anything that I have seen. While it remains in a short term uptrend and
above both moving average (a plus), its volatility is unnerving in the sense that it clearly
portrays the uncertainty in the dollar funding market---which, as you know, I consider
one of the major risks to the Market.
Under normal
circumstances if I showed you this chart of the VIX and ask you what you
thought that the Averages has done in the last week, the last thing you would
say would be that they were up 15-20%.
This pin action tells me that investors remain quite risk averse and that
I should expect more downside in stock prices.
Fundamental
Headlines
***overnight update
on coronavirus.
Part two.
Data on hours
worked.
Good news from Washington
state.
China joins in monetary
easing.
The end of the
great debt super cycle?
CFTC bails out
Capital One.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
International
March
EU business confidence came in at -.28 versus forecasts of -.05; consumer confidence
was -11.6, in line; economic sentiment was 94.5 versus 93.0; industrial
sentiment was -10.8 versus -12.7; services sentiment was -2.2 versus -3.0.
March
German CPI was +0.1%, in line.
Other
Trump hasn’t
calmed the oil market.
Avoiding
the errors of the past.
Bailing
out managers and investors.
What
I am reading today
How to get more sleep
tonight.
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