Monday, March 23, 2020

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call


The Market

            The S&P’s chart doesn’t really require much discussion.  The short term trend is down---dramatically so; and there is no sign of any loss of downside momentum.  The next visible support level is ~1810.

            While the long bond has had a roller coaster ride over the last two weeks, it has remained solidly in multiple uptrends and has maintained its shorter term upward momentum.  So, my assumption is that rates will continue to fall and/or TLT will be viewed as a safety trade.

             I put in a long term chart in the dollar in order to give you a sense of its recent volatility---in the last two weeks, it has traded in a price range that is wider than the spread in most years.  At the moment that volatility is working to the upside which I assume reflects investor fear and their need for safety.

            Gold has not had a good two weeks.  While it remains in its very short term and short term uptrends, it has fallen below both its 100 DMA (now resistance) and its 200 DMA (which will revert to resistance if it closes below that MA today).  In other words, GLD’s price trend remains up but the trend is weakening.  Given the pin action in TLT and UUP, GLD’s price performance should be doing better.

            The VIX’s chart looks much as you would expect---a moonshot mirroring the plunge in equity prices.  There is not a lot of information in this chart.



            ***overnight, Fed unleashes the mother of all QE’s.
            ***overnight, coronavirus update.

     Subscriber Alert

            The stock price of VF Corp (VFC) has traded into its Buy Value Range.  Accordingly, it is being Added to the Dividend Growth and High Yield Buy Lists.  The Dividend Growth and High Yield Portfolios own one half positions having Sold One Half earlier.  At the Market open, both Portfolios will Buy a one half position.

            The stock price of Estee Lauder (EL) has traded into its Buy Value Range.  Accordingly, it is being Added to the Dividend Growth and Aggressive Growth Buy Lists.  At the Market open, the Dividend Growth and Aggressive Growth Portfolios will Buy one half positions.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios


   This Week’s Data


            The February Chicago Fed national activity index was reported at +.16 versus expectations of -.4.



            The inevitable outcome of the oil price war.

What I am reading today

            Quote of the day.

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