The Morning Call
3/23/20
The
Market
Technical
The S&P’s
chart doesn’t really require much discussion.
The short term trend is down---dramatically so; and there is no sign of
any loss of downside momentum. The next visible
support level is ~1810.
While the long
bond has had a roller coaster ride over the last two weeks, it has remained solidly
in multiple uptrends and has maintained its shorter term upward momentum. So, my assumption is that rates will continue
to fall and/or TLT will be viewed as a safety trade.
I put in a long term chart in the dollar in
order to give you a sense of its recent volatility---in the last two weeks, it
has traded in a price range that is wider than the spread in most years. At the moment that volatility is working to
the upside which I assume reflects investor fear and their need for safety.
Gold has not had a
good two weeks. While it remains in its
very short term and short term uptrends, it has fallen below both its 100 DMA (now
resistance) and its 200 DMA (which will revert to resistance if it closes below
that MA today). In other words, GLD’s
price trend remains up but the trend is weakening. Given the pin action in TLT and UUP, GLD’s
price performance should be doing better.
The VIX’s chart
looks much as you would expect---a moonshot mirroring the plunge in equity
prices. There is not a lot of
information in this chart.
Fundamental
Headlines
***overnight, Fed
unleashes the mother of all QE’s.
***overnight,
coronavirus update.
Subscriber Alert
The stock price of
VF Corp (VFC) has traded into its Buy Value Range. Accordingly, it is being Added to the
Dividend Growth and High Yield Buy Lists.
The Dividend Growth and High Yield Portfolios own one half positions
having Sold One Half earlier. At the Market
open, both Portfolios will Buy a one half position.
The
stock price of Estee Lauder (EL) has traded into its Buy Value Range. Accordingly, it is being Added to the Dividend
Growth and Aggressive Growth Buy Lists.
At the Market open, the Dividend Growth and Aggressive Growth Portfolios
will Buy one half positions.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
The
February Chicago Fed national activity index was reported at +.16 versus
expectations of -.4.
International
Other
The
inevitable outcome of the oil price war.
What
I am reading today
Quote of the day.
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