The Morning Call
6/11/19
My electricity and internet have
been out since Sunday. Restored this
morning. So today will short and sweet.
The
Market
Technical
Averages (26062, 2886) had yet another good
day, but again on lower volume. Breadth was
positive. Both DMA’s of both indices now
represent support. However, the S&P successfully
tested that minor resistance level.
VIX was down 2 ¼ % but remains in in a very short term uptrend
and above its 100 DMA. The 200 DMA
reverted to support.
TLT had a gap down
open but still finished above both MA’s (now support) and in a very short term
uptrend.
The dollar was up
ending in a short term uptrend and above both moving averages (now support).
GLD had a gap down
open but remained within a short term uptrend and above both MA’s (now support).
Bottom line:
the indices have nowsuccessfully challenged the numerous resistance
levels formed during the decline off the May double top. However, one minor resistance level will
stand between them and their all time highs.
That is the good news. The bad
news is that they failed to successfully challenge it; plus this rallys has all
been done on very low volume, weak breadth and a VIX that is signalling extreme
complacency.
The pin action in yesterday’s bond, dollar and gold
markets suggested a stronger economy (no way) or the unwinding of the safety
trade.
Fundamental
Headlines
Few headlines beyond the Market itself. Trump did bask in the glory of the Mexican border
deal while the MSM did its best at poo pooing the whole thing.
The ECB continues to incentivize
reckless behavior.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
Month
to date retail chain store sales grew much slower than in the prior week.
The
May small business optimism index came in at 105.0 versus expectations of
102.3.
May PPI was
reported at 2.3%, in line, ex food and energy, it was 0.2%, also in line.
International
April
UK trade deficit was L2.4 billion versus estimates of L3.2 billion; GDP was
-0.4% versus -0.1%; construction orders were up 2.4% versus +3.3%; manufacturing
production was -3.9% versus -1.0%; industrial production was -2.7% versus -0.7%;
unemployment was 3.8%, in line
May
Japanese machine tool orders fell 27.5% against the prior months decline of
33.4%.
Other
Update on consumer credit.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-07/consumer-credit-jumps-most-november-credit-card-debt-soars
What
I am reading today
Can
exercise reverse the aging process?
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