The Morning Call
6/17/19
The
Market
Technical
As you can see,
the S&P is struggling around that minor resistance. However, that is better than retreating from
it. The pattern looks like a consolidation
effort. So, my assumption remains that
momentum continues to the upside; though with the caveat that exceeding low volume,
marginal breadth, a VIX signaling complacency and the bond, dollar and gold
markets all pointing to a weaker economy, are negatives.
The long bond had
a good week, closing above both MA’s, in a very short term uptrend and less than
two points away from its twenty year high.
The dollar remains
strong---above both MA’s and a short term uptrend. However, Friday, it gapped up on the open
which, as you know, I believe will have to be filled.
Gold was off four
cents on Friday but still had a good week, finishing above both MA’s and in a
short term uptrend.
The VIX traded
down last week even though prices were flat to down---a somewhat confusing
performance but indicative of continued complacency.
Fundamental
Headlines
When everything
that counts can’t be counted---a great thought piece and a must read.
Counterpoint.
A great piece from
Howard Marks---a bit long but worth the read.
Is the Fed too
late, again?
Don’t
expect any improvement in US/China trade relations at the upcoming G20 meeting.
Tech
bubble 2.0.
Deutschebank
about to launch ‘bad bank’.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
The June NY Fed
manufacturing index came in at -8.6 versus consensus of +10.0.
International
Other
Corporate
tax receipts are much less than expected.
What
I am reading today
Investment returns are never
permanent.
Buffett
versus the S&P 500 (must read):
Quote of the day.
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